Sportsbook Information

Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 57

2006-11-09T14:20:00.000-08:00

The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble
Exploring the Opportunities of Alternate NFL Lines & Smaller Markets
It’s easy to feel overwhelmed by the sheer number of offerings at the Pinnacle Sportsbook. For football alone, bettors have the choice of nearly 30 markets, including halftimes, quarters, props and futures for several different leagues including the NFL, NCAA, CFL and even the CIS Vanier Cup. Many players staunchly ignore everything except vanilla sides and totals markets. While these players are certainly saving money by taking advantage of Pinnacle Sportsbetting’s -104 reduced juice, they’re also missing out on some potentially profitable alternative markets.
Armed with reduced juice, smart bettors are in a position take on the familiar NFL offerings, but smaller markets like NFL Alternate Spreads and NCAA Div-IAA sides, can be even easier to pillage with low vig. While the wise guys are pounding bigger markets into shape, these less-played promotions remain less efficient, and are ideal prey for smaller players.
In the NFL, Pinnacle Sports offers betting on four different sets of alternate lines: alternate low, alternate high, extra low and extra high. These lines use spreads far removed from the normal line that you cannot reach via the unique drop-down buy/sell menu at the Pinnacle Sports book. For example, if the line for Chicago was -2 ½ (-115), we might also offer the Bears at -7.5 (+230), +3.5 (-230), -10.5 (+320) and +7.5 (-385).
While you can handicap and play alternate lines just like a normal line, there are a few situations when they may be vastly superior to the standard spread. There are two factors that make getting extra points by paying more juice advantageous: (1) when the team you are backing is very consistent, or (2) when the game total is low.
(1) If you have a match-up between two defensive teams that run the ball (like San Diego, Dallas or Jacksonville), the game is more likely to land near the spread, making those extra points you bought more valuable than in a regular game.
(2) When should you play the long shot, giving up more points for a high-paying moneyline? Look for games with high totals, or a match-up between two teams that play inconsistently – especially pass-oriented offenses. In match-ups of teams like Miami, Arizona and Pittsburgh, they’re as likely to win or lose by a high margin in a mismatch. Giving up extra points for a higher payout is a good way to cash in on the volatility of inconsistent teams.
Rich pickings can also be found betting the smaller leagues offered at Pinnacle Sports betting. With over 120 Div-IAA sides, the linesmakers at Pinnacle Sportsbetting simply don’t have the time to analyze each game and team in-depth. Shrewd handicappers focus on a favorite conference like the Ivy League, which gives them an advantage over the house. If you’re a specialist in one conference and know the players, coaches, playing styles, injuries and suspensions for all the teams in that conference, you have invaluable insight on match-ups featuring those teams that bookmakers like PinnacleSports.com, simply do not.
What are our players betting now?
Clemson -17 -108 v. N.C. State
The Tigers opened at -13 -105 and quickly became a public favorite. The sharps didn’t have a clear opinion on this game and the public kept betting Clemson up. While N.C. State has a mere 3-6 record, most of their games have been very competitive – only one loss was by more than eight points.

Wake Forest +8.5 +101 v. Florida State
Every once in awhile, we look at one of our openers and wince at the lopsided action. This happened after we opened the Seminoles at -3.5 -105 and the early sharps played FSU. Fortunately, we can get a good line fairly cheaply due to our lower limits earlier in the week. Once the line stabilized, we are still seeing sharps on Florida State, while the public is strongly on Wake Forest.
New Orleans +4 -102 v. Pittsburgh
The Saints opened as a 6-point underdog, and were quickly bet down by the public. We took two bets on the Saints for every one on the Steelers. Despite the public sentiment, the sharps are evenly split on this game with no change of opinion of note as the line dropped.
Chicago +3 -125 v. New York
We opened the Bears at -1 -112, and took a storm of public money. After Chicago became an underdog at +2.5 and +3, the sharps started lining up on the Bears. The public is quick to react to a single disappointing performance, and seems to have forgotten that the Bears have the greatest points scored differential in the NFL, outscoring their opponents by an average of 16.8 points per game.
Denver/Oakland Over 33 -105
The Raiders have an unusual combination that often makes playing the "Under" very tempting. In their eight games this year, they have only scored six offensive touchdowns. They are the worst team in the NFL for offensive yardage at 228 yards per game and points scored with 11.5 per game. But… Oakland has the #2 passing defense, allowing just 160 passing yards per game. Taken together with a match-up against a strong Broncos defense, it’s no surprise that this is the week’s lowest totaled game. Our opener of 37 took hits mainly from sharps playing the under.
"Stranger than Fiction" under $14 million -140
Since you never know what will catch a player’s fancy we like to experiment with new markets. Case in point is our opening three day weekend box office propositions. The movie market on the opening weekend success of "Stranger than Fiction", drew a lot of interest and brought in moderate balanced action. We opened at $14.5m -108, and the price has drifted down due to the opinions of our "movie sharps". If anyone has good data on buy/sell costs of 0.5 million for movie openers, please write me at askthebook@pinnaclesports.com.

Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing and online casino gaming.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!

Colts remain Undefeated

2006-11-09T14:18:00.000-08:00

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Pinnaclesports.com Posts odds on colts undefeated season
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (November 9, 2006)—After beating New England Sunday night, the Indianapolis Colts remain the only undefeated team in the NFL at the season’s midpoint. Now that Peyton Manning and the Colts have beaten their nemesis, talk of Indianapolis challenging the 1972 Dolphins as the only team to finish the regular season unbeaten has gathered pace. With the Colts inching closer to making history, PinnacleSports.com today announced updated odds on Indianapolis finishing undefeated as well as odds on when the team will suffer its first loss, if at all.
The largest spots betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com originally opened odds on the Colts finishing a perfect 16-0 at odds of 20/1 and become the first team since the 1972 Dolphins to finish with an unblemished regular season record. Now that Indianapolis have survived difficult road games against the Broncos and Patriots, the odds on Manning and the Colts finishing with a perfect season stands at just 6/1. The odds that Indy will simply be another team unable to match the record-holding Dolphins stand as a 1/7 favorite.
In addition to posting odds on the Colts going undefeated in the regular season, PinnacleSports.com has calculated odds on which of Indy’s remaining eight games will see the team’s first loss. The oddsmakers currently list the Colts’ trip to Dallas on November 19th as a 2/1 favorite to become Indianapolis’ first regular season loss. Other teams most likely to deal the Colts their first loss in 2006 include Buffalo (5/1), Philadelphia (6/1) and Jacksonville (7/1).
"While no NFL team has finished with an undefeated season in 34 years, the Colts have already overcome their major roadblocks en route to finishing a perfect 16-0 this year. Indianapolis has survived trips to Denver and New England and faces only one team in their final eight games that currently owns a better than .500 record (Jacksonville)," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "With their remaining opponents holding a combined 26-38 record, Indianapolis going undefeated at 6/1 represents unprecedented value to bettors. Of course things could get very interesting on the season’s final day if the disappointing Dolphins are the final obstacle standing in the way of the Colts matching Miami’s perfect, 1972 season."
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Will The Indianapolis Colts Finish 16-0 In The Regular Season?
Yes 6/1
No 1/7
When Will The Colts Suffer Their First Regular Season Loss?
Nov 12th vs. Buffalo 5/1
Nov 19th @ Dallas 2/1
Nov 26th vs. Philadelphia 6/1
Dec 3rd @ Tennessee 17/1
Dec 10th @ Jacksonville 7/1
Dec 18th vs Cincinnati 12/1
Dec 24th @ Houston 41/1
Dec 31st vs. Miami 26/1
Colts Finish 16-0 6/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

Dancing with the Stars

2006-11-09T14:17:00.000-08:00

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Emmitt Smith favorite to win Dancing With THe Stars At PinnacleSports.com
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (November 9, 2006)—After two months of competition, ABC’s hit show "Dancing With The Stars" has reached its grand finale with only two celebrity teams remaining in the competition. After Wednesday’s elimination of Joey Lawrence, the celebrity dance contest is down to former teen heartthrob Mario Lopez versus the NFL’s all-time leading rusher, Emmitt Smith. With the "Saved By The Bell" star Lopez and Dallas Cowboy great Smith performing their final routines next week, PinnacleSports.com has announced updated odds on who’ll win "Dancing With The Stars".
The Internet’s largest sports betting site, PinnacleSports.com was the first bookmaker to post odds on "Dancing With The Stars". Throughout the series, Mario Lopez had been the favorite to win the competition, but now bettors have now put their support behind Emmitt Smith in the past week vaulting him into favorite status and dropping his odds to win the competition to 4/5 (i.e., win $4 for every $5 bet). As the series heads into its final week, PinnacleSports.com now lists Lopez as the underdog to be crowned the next dance champion at 11/10 odds. As recently as two weeks ago when only four competitors remained, PinnacleSports.com listed Lopez a 5/6 favorite to win the celebrity dance-off, while Emmitt Smith had the second best odds at 7/4.
"We initially saw support for Emmitt Smith begin to swell in the last week when we received several $300 maximum limit bets on the former Super Bowl winner," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "Although customers weren’t backing him nearly as much as when betting opened, Lopez remained our favorite to win Dancing With The Stars until recently mainly because of his superior dancing skills. While he may not have the better moves of the two finalists, Emmitt Smith certainly has the charisma to win over America’s vote and add the dancing crown to his three Super Bowl rings."
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Odds To Win Dancing With The Stars
Contestant
Current Odds
Opening Odds
Emmitt Smith
4/5
14/1
Mario Lopez
11/10
3/1

For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

For Immediate Release

2006-10-31T11:49:00.000-08:00

Odds On Dancing With THe Stars "Final Four"
Mario Lopez Remains Favorite At PinnacleSports.com
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (October 30, 2006)—After nearly two months, ABC’s hit show "Dancing With The Stars" has hit the home stretch as only four celebrity teams remain in the competition. In the next two weeks, Mario Lopez, Emmitt Smith, Monique Coleman and Joey Lawrence and their professional partners will try to impress the television audience and judges with various dance routines. With the hit reality show nearing its finale, PinnacleSports.com has announced updated odds on who’ll win "Dancing With The Stars".
The first bookmaker to post odds on "Dancing With The Stars," PinnacleSports.com has updated betting lines on the show’s finale and continues to list former teen heartthrob, Mario Lopez as the favorite to win the show. After originally opening at 3/1 odds to win the competition in August, the former "Saved By The Bell" star has seen the most backing from bettors as he’s waltzed his way through the competition and is now a 5/6 favorite to win it all. Showing that his quick footwork on the gridiron has translated onto the dance floor, PinnacleSports.com lists the NFL’s all-time leading rusher, Emmitt Smith at 7/4 odds to add the reality show title to his collection of Super Bowl rings. The only remaining female on the show, Monique Coleman is currently a 9/1 long shot to emerge as the next dancing star, along with former child star Joey Lawrence.
"Mario Lopez has been the favorite to win Dancing With The Stars among our bettors since the celebrity competitors were first announced in August," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "While Lopez has shown that he’s clearly the best dancer among the contestants, his chances may be hurt by Emmitt Smith’s popularity and potentially splitting votes with fellow teen heartthrob Joey Lawrence."
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Odds To Win Dancing With The Stars
Contestant
Current Odds
Opening Odds
Mario Lopez
5/6
3/1
Emmitt Smith
7/4
14/1
Monique Coleman
9/1
9/2
Joey Lawrence
9/1
6/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

Immediate Release from Pinnacle

2006-10-25T12:51:00.000-07:00

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

dallas Mavericks favored to win 2007 nba championship
PinnacleSports.com Announces Updated Odds To Win NBA Title
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (October 24, 2006)—With tip-off of the 2006-07 basketball season taking place next week, PinnacleSports.com has announced updated odds on all 30 NBA teams winning the league championship. The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com currently lists Mark Cuban’s Dallas Mavericks as a 4/1 favorite to avenge last year’s loss in the NBA Finals and capture the franchise’s first ever championship.
With Amare Stoudemire returning to the lineup along side reigning two-time league MVP Steve Nash, the Phoenix Suns should be even more explosive this year and are currently listed at 11/2 to win the NBA title. Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs begin the season attempting to become the next NBA dynasty and are also listed at 11/2 to win their third championship in five years. Although they return nearly every key player from last year’s team, Dwayne Wade, Shaquille O’Neal and the rest of the reigning NBA champion Miami Heat are listed at just 6/1 to repeat this season. PinnacleSports.com believes that the New Jersey Nets (9/1), led by the trio of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson, will emerge as solid title contenders from the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the sportsbook lists LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers at 10/1 to ascend to the NBA throne, while the Detroit Pistons are 11/1 to bring a title back to Motown.
After landing four-time Defensive Player of the Year Ben Wallace in the offseason, the Chicago Bulls (19/1) mix of young talent and veteran leadership should help make them a contender in ’07. While not in the limelight like the Lakers, the LA Clippers (22/1) were Hollywood’s best team last year and are poised to make another playoff run. The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com believe a healthy Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming will help return the Houston Rockets (24/1) to the playoff caliber team they were in 2004-05. Playoff teams a year ago, Washington Wizards (43/1), Sacremento Kings (49/1), Denver Nuggets (51/1), Indiana Pacers (64/1), Los Angeles Lakers (67/1) and Memphis Grizzlies (75/1) are on the outside looking in at the top title contenders according to the oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com.
Although there are hopes in the Big Apple that the Knicks will improve on last season’s pitiful 23-win campaign, PinnacleSports.com lists New York as huge 300/1 long shots to win the championship this year. The hopes appear even dimmer for the Portland Trailblazers and Charlotte Bobcats, who are both listed at 500/1 to win the NBA title at PinnacleSports.com.

Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Odds To Win 2007 NBA Championship
Dallas Mavericks 4/1
Phoenix Suns 11/2
San Antonio Spurs 11/2
Miami Heat 6/1
New Jersey Nets 9/1
Cleveland Cavaliers 10/1
Detroit Pistons 11/1
Chicago Bulls 19/1
Los Angeles Clippers 22/1
Houston Rockets 24/1
Washington Wizards 43/1
Sacramento Kings 49/1
Denver Nuggets 51/1
Indiana Pacers 64/1
Los Angeles Lakers 67/1
Memphis Grizzlies 75/1
Seattle Supersonics 75/1
Golden State Warriors 75/1
Boston Celtics 75/1
Utah Jazz 75/1
Minnesota Timberwolves 87/1
Atlanta Hawks 87/1
Milwaukee Bucks 90/1
N.O/Oklahoma City Hornets 90/1
Toronto Raptors 109/1
Philadelphia 76ers 130/1
Orlando Magic 150/1
New York Knicks 300/1
Portland Trailblazers 500/1
Charlotte Bobcats 500/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 55

2006-10-25T12:49:00.000-07:00

Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 55
The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble
Identifying Recurring ‘Steam Plays’ & Turning Them to Your Advantage
An alarming pattern has started this year in college football. Every Thursday afternoon (around 1 p.m. EST), there’s been a flurry of action on a limited number of games. The enormous amounts of money pouring in during this "witching hour" are causing massive line movements – in some cases, we’re seeing a 4-point move in less than 10 minutes. Some say this is the handiwork of handicapper Dr. Bob. Others blame it on syndicate action from Taiwan, China or Israel. Regardless of the source, these line movements are bad news for sportsbooks.
When we take one-sided bets on a football game at Pinnacle Sportsbetting, we adjust the moneyline price to encourage or discourage action. The price is like a control-valve on a dam, controlling how fast the money flows on a given game. If the market price on a game is "Ohio State -14 (-110)", we have two ways to slow down bets on the Buckeyes. We can offer Ohio State at -14 (-111), which is what we call a "stopper" – no one wants to pay this price if a better one is easy to find. We can also adjust the spread off the market price to -14.5 (-105), but the danger whenever you adjust a spread though is that you risk getting sided or middled. Under normal situations, either of these techniques will help control our position.
The problem with these Thursday morning steam-plays arises from how fast a book can get slammed with bets. Price adjustments and even minor spread adjustments do not slow these bettors. If a sportsbook takes many limit bets in a 20-second window, it’s stuck with a very bad position after a 4-point line movement. Each time this happens, an oddsmaker might expect to lose $0.15 for every dollar bet in that time frame (from middles and the cost of offering a good price on the other side). A high-volume shop like Pinnacle Sportsbook can trade its way out of a bad position, but lower volume books can be decimated by this.
Most steam plays tend to be long-term winning plays (as long as you get the pre-move price), and these Thursday plays are no exception. Many players are starting to watch for steam plays Thursday morning, and blindly bet them at slower-moving sportsbooks. This "echo" makes the initial surge even more terrifying for some line managers.
Regular players can make money off these line moves by simply watching the odds screen Thursday mornings. When you see the lines begin to move, bet at smaller books – especially those that offer first-half lines. These types of derivative lines often move slower than game lines. This gives patient players the option to middle the first half once the lines stabilize. If you manage to play a side before a steam-move of at least two points, you can usually scalp the new number at Pinnacle Sports Betting using point-selling and our 10-cent line on college football which offers up to 50% better value than other sports books.
What are the players betting at PinnacleSports.com this week?
Notre Dame -14 +103 at Navy
This game opened with the Irish listed at -14 (-105). While the game has been heavily-traded with fairly balanced action, market drift has made Navy more expensive – they are now trading at +14 (-113). The wise guys have been reluctant to pick one side, possibly uncertain how Navy will perform with the loss of starting quarterback Brian Hampton, due to a knee injury sustained in Navy’s 34-0 loss to Rutgers.
Northern Illinois at Iowa Over 49 -101
There are fewer sharp players specializing in totals compared to sides. Consequently, we see fewer sharp positions on totals this early in the week, but this game is an exception. This total has been heavily traded, and our sharper players are on the over, while the public is backing the under at a ratio of 2-to-1. The high public volume drove down the opener of 52 (-105). When public money greatly outweighs sharp action, it suggests that more sharps could feed on the total than they are currently doing.
Arizona +3.5 -109 at Green Bay
The opener of Green Bay -3 (-112) drew heavy action on both sides, but the public favored the Packers by nearly a 2-to-1 margin. As is often the case, the sharps lined up against the public, backing the Cardinals this time. A few wise guys played the Cardinals earlier, buying a full point up to +4.5. Some of our readers have asked us whether these players are truly sharp if they frequently buy through the "4". Our definition of a sharp player has two requirements: he/she tends to beat the closing line and tends to win long-term. We mention unusual sharp activity (such as buying through the "4") not to encourage our readers to do this blindly, but to offer an insight and angle to explore.
St. Louis +9 -111 at San Diego
Our opener of Rams +10 -110 drew heavy volume, with the public favoring St. Louis. The sharps were on both sides of the game, suggesting it might be a good game to avoid. The reason being that if two 54% handicappers are on opposite sides of the same game, they can only hope to hit 50% on that match-up, which is a losing proposition.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!

Immediate Release from Pinnacle

2006-10-25T12:48:00.000-07:00

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Odds Are dennis Green Will Be First NFL Coaching Casualty
PinnacleSports.com Announces Updated Odds On First NFL Head Coach To Lose His Job
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (October 25, 2006)—We’re only seven weeks into the NFL season and already the contenders have begun to separate themselves from the pretenders. Several head coaches are already starting to feel the heat as their teams are failing to meet pre-season expectations. With a number of teams off to a slow start, PinnacleSports.com today announced updated odds on which current NFL coach will be the first to lose his job.
The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com has created individual odds on 12 NFL head coaches becoming the first coaching casualty this season. After following up a choke job of historic proportions on Monday Night versus Chicago, with a loss last Sunday to the lowly Raiders, it’s no surprise that Arizona’s Dennis Green is the odds-on favorite to become the first coach to get his walking papers at 1/1 odds (i.e., win $1 for every $1 bet). While only in his second year at the helm, Romeo Crennel (7/1) might be on the verge of losing his job in Cleveland as the team continues to falter and just this week, offensive coordinator Maurice Carthon resigned. Although widely considered the worst team in the NFL, Art Shell (8/1) may get some leeway from Al Davis in Oakland knowing that the team is in full rebuilding mode. With a shocking 1-6 start to the season, the playoff aspirations in Miami are all but gone and PinnacleSports.com now lists the chances of the previously unthinkable firing of Nick Saban at 9/1.
"Several media reports already indicate that unless Arizona wins at Green Bay this weekend, Dennis Green might not make it through the team’s Week 9 bye as head coach of the Cardinals," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "If blowing a 20-point halftime lead on Monday Night Football and exploding at the post-game press conference weren’t enough, Arizona were then dominated by the previously winless Raiders – a sure sign that Green’s days are numbered. The race to become the first NFL coaching casualty would even be hotly contested without Green in the equation as Crennel, Shell and Saban all appear to be firmly headed for the chopping block."
The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com list Buffalo’s Dick Jauron at 11/1 odds to get his walking papers first, even though he’s only in his first season leading the Bills. Veteran coaches Jeff Fisher (13/1) and Joe Gibbs (13/1) are also solid candidates to become the first coaching casualty this season as their teams have combined for a total of just three wins. San Francisco’s Mike Nolan and Detroit’s Rod Marinelli, who are in the midst of rebuilding projects with their teams, have both been listed at 15/1. Although Tampa Bay has rallied for back-to-back wins after starting 0-5 this year, PinnacleSports.com still lists head coach Jon Gruden at 24/1 to become the first coach to get his pink slip this year. Meanwhile, head coach of the reigning Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, Bill Cowher and first year coach Mike McCarthy of Green Bay, are both listed as long shots to be the first coaching casualty at 31/1.
Current Odds: All Odds Subject To Change
Which Of These NFL Coaches Will Lose His Job First?
Dennis Green 1/1
Romeo Crennel 7/1
Art Shell 8/1
Nick Saban 9/1
Dick Jauron 11/1
Jeff Fisher 13/1
Joe Gibbs 13/1
Mike Nolan 15/1
Rod Marinelli 15/1
Jon Gruden 24/1
Bill Cowher 31/1
Mike McCarthy 31/1
For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 54

2006-10-18T09:45:00.000-07:00

The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble
Understanding ‘Luck’ and Making It Work For You
Two Sundays ago, during the end of the Dallas-Philadelphia game, the Cowboys were down 31-24 and driving into Eagle territory with about 30 seconds on the clock. Though Dallas were long shots to score a TD and tie things up, those "wise guys" sitting on the teaser of Dallas +1.5 up to +7.5 were already counting their winnings.
With Dallas out of timeouts, a few more incomplete passes, a touchdown, or even getting tackled in bounds would end the game and give many of these players a chance to cash at the window with a smile on their face… Then the unthinkable happened!!! A Dallas pass in the end zone was intercepted and returned 102 yards for a Philadelphia touchdown. Whether you call this a highly improbable occurrence, or just plain bad luck, either way all those Dallas teasers bit the dust and those wise guys lost out.
While a bad-beat like that may leave a horrible taste in the mouth, it’s surprising how quickly players forget about the impact of luck on a team’s performance. Players might later review Dallas’s schedule and note the Cowboy’s win/loss record, or the points for/against, but miss the subtle nuances of outrageous misfortune – like the 102 yard TD interception.
In a very long season – such as the NBA or MLB - the good and bad breaks tend to balance each other out. After 30-40 games, you get a fair measure of a team’s ability. It’s more dangerous to ignore luck’s affects on an NFL team due to the short season; most successful bettors appreciate how luck adds another dimension to a team’s win/loss record.
There are several occasions each NFL season where the better football team does not win because of a lucky or unlucky play that defies reason. We’ve all seen miracles and disasters cause small fortunes to change hands between bookies and bettors, but still many players ignore this factor when evaluating teams.
In the same way that players perceive a pattern at the roulette table when the ball lands on black for six consecutive spins (there’s actually no pattern, just a sequence of random events), many players try to deduce a "pattern" in lucky or unlucky teams. However, the results are better explained by chance.
How do handicappers decide if a result is due solely to luck or from the quality of a team that finds a way to win? Many professional players do extensive statistical testing of a single factor that might be heavily affected by luck. This approach determines whether a team that has shown a certain tendency in the past (such as throwing many interceptions) is likely to continue in the future.
The "bean counters" do this with correlation tests, trying to validate (or refute) the idea that "bad teams throw more interceptions" by looking at the results of teams in prior seasons. Do bad teams throw more interceptions, or are there simply unlucky events that make a team "look bad"? This question can be answered even if you have no idea what a "correlation test" is.
First off, identify the factor you want to test for luck – in this case, interceptions. Look at league-wide statistics for the first eight weeks of the prior season, to see which teams had the most, and least interceptions. Divide all NFL teams between "good" and "bad" based on interceptions thrown. If they threw more than average, put them in the "bad" group, and otherwise in the "good" stack.
Then utilize the same process while examining the last eight or nine weeks. If the same 16 teams are bad in both halves, it would suggest a very high correlation, meaning that a team that throws picks will probably keep doing so. If exactly half of the "bad teams" from the first half of the season are bad in the second half (regarding interceptions), it would suggest the event is purely random (since a "bad" team in the first half of the season is equally likely to be good or bad in the second).
Practicing this test on NFL teams, will show that interceptions thrown by a team are almost completely random. In fact, you’d also find similar results for all forms of giveaways and takeaways – there’s less than a 20% correlation. So how do bettors turn this knowledge into money? Simply recognize when teams are overrated or underrated because of the impact on perception of good or bad luck.
A team with a high turnover differential looks good in a box-score, but it’s just as likely to be positive as negative on turnovers going forward. Historical scores do not reflect that, and make these teams (like St. Louis) look much stronger than they actually are. Similarly, teams with negative turnover differentials (like Oakland and Cleveland) tend to outperform the public’s expectations (and hence, the spread).
There are other calculations bettors can do that will give a statistical edge in sports betting. Identifying results that are unusual due to luck will put you in position to evaluate teams better than the market as a whole. With any statistic you can isolate and analyze – from the Colts’ 3rd-down conversion rate to anomalies in field goal kicking – if you can recognize luck, you can make money off it.
Real statistics geeks can go further with the luck factors identified. Advanced correlation can tell you how much difference a lucky turnover change makes to an NFL game (it’s actually about 3.5 points). Or, a hit batter in baseball, which accounts for about 0.5 runs. If you can quantify how much these lucky/unlucky instances change the event outcomes, you can "adjust" your statistics accordingly and gain a better measure of what truly happened. If your assessment is more accurate than the market, you will profit.

What are our players betting?
Miami -17.5 -109 at Duke
In Miami’s game against FIU last week, a brawl broke out resulting in the suspension of 13 Miami players. We thought the opener of Miami -20.5 accurately reflected these suspensions, but the sharps disagreed. The wise guys fired away on Duke at +20.5 with some buying it up to +21.5. Despite the sharp action on Duke, we are seeing many more players backing Miami.
Texas -6.5 -105 at Nebraska
The initial opener of Texas -8 drew a flurry of sharp activity, all of which was on Nebraska. Most of the public is on Texas and there are three times as many wagers on the Longhorns, including most of our larger Asian players. This game has been heavily traded, with the sharps refusing to allow the line to drift to Texas -7.
San Diego Chargers -5 -103 at Kansas City Chiefs
The sharps were split evenly on the opener of Chargers -4.5 with some sharps buying the Chargers down to -3.5. When we see this type of activity, one of two things must be true – our push percentages are wrong or their numbers are wrong. Although there’s fairly balanced action in terms of volume, the public clearly favors the Chargers as we’ve taken nearly 20 times as many bets on San Diego as Kansas City.
Carolina Panthers +3 +105 at Cincinnati Bengals
We opened the Panthers at +3.5 (-112) and saw a fairly rare event – the sharps AND the public backing the same side. With nearly three times as many bets on Carolina as Cincinnati, this price has drifted down. Similar to the San Diego game, we’re seeing some of our sharper players buy through the "4".
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!

Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 53

2006-10-11T09:57:00.000-07:00

The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble

Turning Fantasy Football Into Real Cash
Fantasy sports have become an extremely popular pastime with tens of millions of sports fans around the world. During football season, fantasy owners spend hours each week examining player statistics, evaluating their fantasy football teams and contemplating trades. Team owners hold extensive negotiations over even the smallest transactions in hopes that the hard work will payoff come game day. Once Sunday’s NFL games kickoff, fantasy players turn their focus to statistics in the day’s games, hoping to dominate their respective leagues.
What could be better than seeing your Fantasy Team crushing a hapless opponent? Winning your fantasy game AND making money! Pinnacle Sportsbook is now taking bets on YOUR fantasy games, so that it can become a reality! As always, Pinnacle Sportsbetting is even offering reduced juice with -108 pricing on YOUR Fantasy League match-ups.
It only takes about three minutes to set up your league and begin betting on your fantasy team’s match-ups. Simply go to FantasyRivals.com, and create a new account – you only need a username and valid email address. Once logged in, importing your Fantasy League from either Yahoo! or CBS Sportsline happens almost instantaneously. If your league is hosted on another service or you don’t belong to an existing league, you also have the option of entering the league information manually.
Once your league is set up, select the "Line Generator" which allows you to request a point spread between two chosen fantasy teams in your league. This betting line is then available at PinnacleSports.com, where you can bet on it like any other sporting event. The one caveat is that both quarterbacks must play for your bet to have action – any other player missing from the game doesn’t matter (except for your fantasy score!).
Even if you’re not a big bettor, FantasyRivals.com gives you an edge to help win your fantasy league. The Line Generator gives a good indication of how strong your starting lineup is in a professional bookmaker’s eyes relative to that week’s opponent. The ultimate tool helping fantasy owners make difficult lineup decisions, the Line Generator will automatically devise a new betting line as owners activate different players in their starting lineup, which indicates what players are good Starts/Sits for your game.
For example; if the Line Generator makes your team a 7-point favorite with Chester Taylor starting at RB, but only a 4-point favorite with Warrick Dunn starting in his place, this indicates that Taylor is a better start in your match-up. If you’re surprised at the new line, or think a change is not adequately reflected in the line, you can always back your opinion by betting into that line at Pinnacle Sports Book.
In both fantasy games and betting, paying particular attention to match-ups where a player may have a breakout performance can be very beneficial. Since Pinnacle Sports’ Fantasy Team lines are based on expected average performance, you’ll want to find situations where a player’s performance may differ drastically from his average.
Many of your opponents will use similar criteria to select their starting lineup, but occasionally, you can find a break-out player who’ll exceed his past performance. This often happens when there’s a change in that player’s role. For example, a tight end or secondary wide receiver might get more looks and earn more points if a team’s top receiver is injured.
Another opportunity to find breakout players may arise in mismatches. When a game goes into the second half with a dominant favorite up 14 or more points, there are usually significant changes in play selection. The favorite tends to run the ball more often, while the losing team attempts more passes. Using this theory to your advantage, you may want to activate running backs for teams that are favored by 10 points or more.
It’s equally important to avoid quarterbacks playing for large underdogs. Although they typically attempt more passes, they also tend to throw a disproportionate number of interceptions. You’re also likely to see a winning team using more nickel and dime defensive packages (even on first or second down), when its opponent is down a few scores in the second half. While quarterbacks of big underdogs are typically something to be avoided in fantasy, receivers and tight ends of these teams often benefit from the rout by making more pass receptions, without getting penalized for the more frequent interceptions and sacks.
What are our players betting now?
Philadelphia -3.5 -106 v New Orleans
In the highest-traded game of the week, the Eagles opened as 2.5-point road favorites where several early bets from sharps quickly moved the line. The professionals clearly like the Eagles at -2.5 and even -3, but are passing on Philly -3.5. New Orleans has been a fairly public team this year, so we expect Saints backers to take the +3.5, which could force this game to close on the 3.
Chicago/Arizona Over 38 -107
The opening total of 37 was heavily bet by the public forcing the line up to 38. The sharps have not expressed an opinion on this game yet, which may indicate that they’re waiting for Monday night to play the under. While the Bears’ have averaged over 31 points per game this season, it remains to be seen if the Cardinals can score against the dominant Chicago defense.

Florida +1 -105 v Auburn
Auburn was embarrassed last week losing to Arkansas 27-10 at home. Public bettors often back top-ranked teams following this type of loss using a "bounce back" theory. This game is clearly following that trend as a lot of public money has already come in on the Tigers. The sharps clearly favor Florida, and their larger wagers have pushed the opener of Florida +1.5 down.

Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 52

2006-10-04T12:25:00.000-07:00

Pinnacle Pulse: Issue 52

The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble

Handicapping the Handicappers – A Guide to Forum Opinion

All bettors want the quick, easy win, but any long-term success can be attributed to only one thing — hours of research and study. This poses a problem for weekend warriors who don’t have the time to dedicate 40+ hours per week analyzing lines and shopping for value. A potential solution to this predicament for recreational bettors, that offers a realistic chance for finding winners without quitting their day jobs, can be found at online sports betting forums.

One of the quickest ways to learn, without the time-consuming study, is to watch and converse with proven winning handicappers in these gambling discussion areas. There are many talented sports bettors who freely give away plays and encourage discussion on open forums. But how do you know when a handicapper has a long enough track record to justify following their plays?

Handicapping the handicappers can be as difficult as analyzing sports games themselves. Time and again you’ll see a poster start hot, only to crash and burn later. There’s a real risk that you might start following a new “expert’s” plays when he’s actually just a 50% (or worse) handicapper. When new players start posting their selections, they’ll often quit after many losing plays or even if they’re winning 50% of the time. At the same time, players with winning records keep posting. This causes “survival bias” – a fair number of handicappers will look like winners even if they are just coin-flippers. One way to avoid this (and have a better chance of following a winner) is to look for ‘cappers’ with at least 100 selections.

When evaluating a player, it’s useful to know how likely a handicapper’s results are to occur if all of his selections were random (e.g. a 50% handicapper). A simple rule is to take the square root of the total number of selections and add that number to one half of the total plays made. For example, if he has 400 plays, the square root would be 20, which added to one half of 400, gives a total of 220 theoretical wins.

If a player is 20 selections above 200 in this case, he is two standard deviations above average. There’s about a 1 in 40 chance of a 50% handicapper doing that. So a player with 400 selections would need to go 220-180, or 60-40 with 100 selections to be this rare. Without being a master statistician, you can quickly see that the more selections you can view, the easier it is to evaluate a player. In many cases, it’s safer to follow someone with a lower winning percentage if they have a lot more plays.

Another question players frequently ask is if they should pay for someone’s selections? Players should first analyze the economics of this – How much do you expect to win following these tips? And how much is it costing relative to what’s being bet?

If you’re betting $100 per game while paying a consultant $25 per play for advice, there’s no chance to win at season’s end. The handicapper does not share the risk, even if he only charges for winning plays. Consequently, it’s hard to justify spending more than 1-2% of each bet on consulting. Making 100 plays of $100 each on an NFL season, it might be reasonable to pay a few hundred dollars for professional advice, but in that same situation you’d need to win 56% of your plays just to break even if you paid a 10% fee of $1,000. There are very few people that can hit 56% in the long-term without betting into overnight lines and the more obscure sports.

The gambling forums can also assist you in getting other gambler’s opinions on various professional tout services, before paying for their handicapping. While there are reputable tout services out there, ‘caveat emptor’ applies as the buyer should always beware before spending money for picks. Don’t simply take a listed record for fact, ask around and find out if they’re grading themselves fairly. Is the handicapper giving plays that only their followers can get?

Try not getting caught up in promotions of short-term results, instead focus on long-term performance using the same analysis you’d use on forum posters. Also find out the touts win rate for the last 100 plays. If you have trouble finding a play history, many of the professional services will provide them on request. Other services may list their plays after the game begins, which allows you to independently track them. Should you choose to select a service, don’t cheat yourself, put in the research to ensure you get your money’s worth.

So what are players betting in the early action at Pinnacle Sportsbook this week?

LSU -1 -101 v Florida

Florida was originally a 2.5 point favorite, but public money has kept coming in on LSU at Pinnacle Sportsbetting. While there have been twice as many bets on LSU as Florida, there has not been a clear consensus from our sharps at the time of writing.

Tennessee -2 -109 v Georgia

The oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com opened the Vols’ as a 2.5 point favorite. The Bulldogs have struggled two weeks in a row to mediocre teams, which was enough to get the public to fade them heavily. We have three times as many bettors on Tennessee as Georgia. Despite the public money, the line has drifted down to -2 as our sharps are collectively on the Bulldogs.

Kansas City -3 -125 v. Arizona

The opener of Chiefs -2.5 (-110) drew a downpour of money at a rate of three bets on K.C. for every one on Arizona. Some sharper players also took an early position on the Chiefs, and sold it off by playing Arizona +3.5 (with point buying). A lot of players are buying half-points on this game, which will make this an ugly game if we’re middled on the “3”.
Pittsburgh +3.5 -115 v San Diego

This game is one of the most heavily traded games of the week at Pinnacle Sports. The action has been balanced and the sharps have not picked a side on this match-up yet. There is a “resistance point” at San Diego -3.5 (+109). While the price is currently -3.5 (+107), it occasionally creeps up when we take a few large Pittsburgh bets. Every time the line hits Chargers -3.5 (+109), we take a limit bet on them. There are two common causes of this: either scalpers are playing our numbers versus other sportsbooks, or some players are slowly building up a larger position on the Chargers.

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-10-04T12:20:00.000-07:00

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-10-04T12:18:00.000-07:00

Bills face stiff test from Bears
The Buffalo Bills climbed back up to the .500 mark with a 17-12 home win over the Minnesota Vikings last week. In order to get over that mark this weekend they’ll have to do what no other team has been able to this season – beat the Chicago Bears.
The Bears ran roughshod over the Seattle Seahawks in the Sunday Night game last week, getting two touchdown passes from Rex Grossman and two touchdown runs from Thomas Jones in the 37-6 victory. Chicago easily covered the spread at home versus Seattle, and now sit at 3-1 against the spread (ATS) on the season.
Buffalo is also 3-1 ATS in 2006, thanks to their win over Minnesota last week. Bills quarterback J.P. Losman went 23-of-32 for 222 yards passing versus the Vikings, with one touchdown and no interceptions. Willis McGahee ran for a score for Buffalo, and Peerless Price had the team’s TD catch.
To improve that ATS mark today, the Bills need to keep the score close. Oddsmakers at http://pinnaclesports.com/ have the unbeaten Bears pegged as large 11.5 point +106 (bet $100 to win $106) home favorites for the 1:00pm ET contest versus Buffalo. The Bears are 2-0 ATS at home this season, and 3-1 ATS as favorites. The Bills are 2-0 ATS on the road in 2006, and 2-0 ATS as the underdog.
The total for Sunday’s game is currently sitting at 34 points. The combined score of last week’s Bills/Vikings game fell UNDER the posted total, and Buffalo is 1-3 OVER/UNDER on the season. Chicago has a 2-1-1 OU mark in 2006 and the Bears almost single-handedly cashed the OVER against the Seahawks.
The last time Buffalo and Chicago met in September 2002, the Bills came away with a 33-27 home victory as 3-point favorites. The combined score of that contest went OVER the day’s posted total. The Bears haven’t beaten the Bills since December 1997, when they came up with a 20-3 home victory as 1-point underdogs.
And then there were three

You expect this perfect-record stuff from Indianapolis. It seems Peyton Manning and his Colts gallop out to a 5-0 or 10-0 start every season, making headlines each time.

But the Bears? Or the Ravens?

Only three teams that charged unbeaten into Week 4 survived the weekend. Two Super Bowl contenders were humbled last week as the defending NFC champion Seahawks were mauled 37-6 in Chicago, while the 3-0 Bengals were pummeled at home by the Patriots.

If you listen closely, you can hear early whispers of a Chicago-Indy Super Bowl. And of the three surviving unbeaten teams, they look like the best bets to stay that way through Week 5, while the surprising Ravens, who finished off the 2-0 Chargers at home, have a tough task in Denver.

Widely recognized as the largest online sports book in the world, www.PinnacleSports.com is known for taking action from all players big or small. Whether it’s $1 or $50,000, www.PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for being the destination of choice for seasoned professionals and sports betting novices alike.

Offering up to 60% better odds on NFL sides than other bookmakers, the oddsmakers at www.PinnacleSports.com list Indianapolis as a whopping 18.5 point (+102) favorite at home to winless Tennessee, while the Bears moved quickly from -8 to -11.5 (+106) favorites at www.PinnacleSports.com to handle the Bills.

The Ravens, meanwhile, opened as 3.5-point -101 (bet $101 to win $100) underdogs to the 2-1 Broncos, who are coming off a bye week. Denver is 5-1 ATS in their past six at home with the extra week of rest.

While teams at the top of NFL food chain are changing, it’s the same old teams providing the steady diet of wins at the bottom.

Tennessee, Oakland and Detroit are joined by Tampa Bay as the only winless teams, while the 49ers and Cardinals (both 1-3) have done little to shed their reputations as perennial losers.

The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS, punishing fans and bettors who bought the early hype that this year would be different in the desert. It’s looking exactly the same in Arizona, except for one significant change: The Matt Leinart Era begins much earlier than most anticipated.

A 1-3 start and abysmal play by starter Kurt Warner has forced a change under center. The Cardinals host Kansas City, who clobbered San Francisco 41-0 last week and look to make it two straight. Oddsmakers at www.PinnacleSports.com opened the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites in the desert, but it moved to -3 -123 after plenty of early money poured in on KC.

In the Meadowlands, a fierce division rivalry between the suddenly explosive Redskins and the rested Giants is renewed, with New York coming off a bye week (where they are 14-5 ATS the last 19 games after a bye). Washington looks to the rejuvenated Mark Brunell to Santana Moss tandem to do more damage, after hooking up for three scores in last Sunday’s win over the Jags.

The Giants are 1-2, but deserve to be 0-3. In fairness, they’ve played three top teams in Philadelphia, Seattle and Indy, but they can’t afford to lose division games. Realizing this, bettors jumped all over the line at -3, pushing it quickly to Giants -4 -109.

In Miami, the alleged Super Bowl contending Dolphins join Carolina as the only other teams with 0-4 ATS marks. The Dolphins could be headed for a 1-4 start, but they get ten points from www.PinnacleSports.com oddsmakers who figure, if they can’t beat Houston, they can’t beat New England. The Patriots are listed as -10 +103 favorites to cover.

If you subscribe to the Letdown Theory, the Patriots may be primed for one after a thorough road win at Cincinnati. You could advance the theory further, believing that the Dolphins hit bottom in Houston and will rebound against a division foe.

However, Miami’s offense has been dreadful with Daunte Culpepper proving to be the next Jay Fielder instead of the second coming of Dan Marino, and Ronnie Brown struggling on the ground.

In Jacksonville, the Jaguars have covered four straight meetings with the Jets. But are these two teams headed in opposite directions?

New York has won twice outright as a road underdog this season, while losing tough games at home to New England and Indy. Can they de-claw the Jaguars and send them to a third consecutive defeat? The Jets opened as touchdown dogs and will have to make the most of their time on offense if Jacksonville’s ball-hogging ways continue. Jag’s QB Byron Leftwich and the offense have averaged 36 minutes in time-of-possession in two home games, an edge the Jets will need to counteract. www.PinnacleSports.com list the Jaguars as -7 -104 favorites for the tie in Jacksonville.

The contenders are distancing themselves from the pretenders early in 2006.

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-09-27T12:53:00.000-07:00

The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Until recently, sharp players routinely turned a profit using very little handicapping and simply playing underdogs. Blindly betting every home dog of +7.5 or more during NFL season became a staple that regularly cashed at the window. Then this traditional handicapping technique stopped working to the point that these "bread and butter" plays no longer brought home the bacon. In 2005, the "Sharps 101 playbook" was rewritten as favorites covered 58% of the time.
Although it’s only the fourth week of the season, at Pinnacle Sportsbook we’ve noticed that this trend may reestablish itself as good teams dominate. Teams that are 2-1 or 3-0 are a combined 32-12 (72.73%) against the spread. With underdogs of 10 or more points only covering 1/3 of games this season it certainly brings league parity into question.
There’s always been a gap between the "haves" and "have nots" in the NFL. Prior to the 2002 season, this gap was bridged by scheduling four games for each team based on the previous year’s performance. If a team finished last in its division, the "crème puff" factor dictated that it would get four games against equally bad teams.
Since 2002, new NFL scheduling rules dictate that only two games per year would be based on a team’s record from the preceding year. As a result, today’s NFL schedule now contains more games between mismatched teams than before. Consequently, bad teams lose more games while good teams win more often.
This was extremely evident last year when only 1 of 32 teams finished with an 8-8 record. With the ever-growing number of underdog players and more mismatches, there are now profitable opportunities to do what was previously unthinkable - back quality teams as large favorites. Since there are several underdog players at Pinnacle Sportsbetting, which also offers up to 60% better odds on NFL sides, there’s often great value to be found betting favorites.
One way to evaluate a team is to look at its offensive yards per play and the defensive yards allowed per play. As one would expect, teams that gain more yards than they allow tend to win. While this isn’t exclusively accurate, this measure is at least as good a predictor of future performance as past game scores. Using the Internet and Excel, you can easily evaluate the entire league in just a few minutes. Scraping data and analyzing it in Excel is a mandatory skill for successful handicappers, so it’s worthwhile to provide a brief example of how simple it is.
Under the "Stats" section on NFL.com simply select "2005 regular season". At the bottom of the page under "Sortable team rankings", there are "Offense" and "Defense" options. Simply clicking the "Find stats" button after selecting total offense or defense, will give a number of statistics for every NFL team including offensive/defensive yards per play (Y/P).
Copy the offensive and defensive yards per play into an Excel spreadsheet sorted for each team’s individual stats. Then simply subtract the defensive yards per play from the offensive yards per play. If the "A" column is the team, and "B and C" are offensive and defensive yardages respectively, use the formula "=b1-c1" in column D. This will give a "yardage differential" for each team, which if positive, indicates a team that gains more yardage on offense than it surrenders. If done correctly, the spreadsheet should look like this:

Team
Y/P
Y/P
Net Yard Differential
Team
Y/P
Y/P
Net Yard Differential
San Francisco
4.1
5.7
-1.6
Philadelphia
5
5
0
Houston
4.2
5.8
-1.6
Tampa Bay
4.8
4.7
0.1
Buffalo
4.4
5.3
-0.9
Arizona
5.2
5.1
0.1
Detroit
4.5
5.1
-0.6
Green Bay
4.9
4.8
0.1
New Orleans
4.9
5.3
-0.4
Washington
5.1
4.9
0.2
New York (NYJ)
4.4
4.7
-0.3
Jacksonville
5
4.8
0.2
Tennessee
5
5.3
-0.3
New England
5.5
5.3
0.2
Baltimore
4.4
4.6
-0.2
Kansas City
5.8
5.4
0.4
Dallas
4.9
5.1
-0.2
Miami
5.1
4.7
0.4
St. Louis
5.4
5.6
-0.2
San Diego
5.4
5
0.4
Atlanta
5.1
5.2
-0.1
Carolina
5.1
4.6
0.5
Cleveland
4.9
5
-0.1
Denver
5.6
5.1
0.5
Minnesota
4.9
5
-0.1
New York (NYG)
5.5
5
0.5
Oakland
5
5.1
-0.1
Indianapolis
5.8
5.2
0.6
Chicago
4.4
4.4
0
Pittsburgh
5.4
4.6
0.8
Cincinnati
5.6
5.6
0
Seattle
5.8
4.9
0.9
The four worst teams in terms of yardage per play differential in 2005 were San Francisco, Houston, Buffalo and Detroit, while the four best were the New York Giants, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Seattle. Betting lines often fail to adequately reflect the difference between the elite teams compared to the dregs. The top four were 6-2-1 against the spread and 9-0 straight up in 2005 against the bottom four.
While these results aren’t surprising, a yardage differential can also be used to analyze match-ups between nearly any two teams. There’s a "quick and dirty" rule for setting a spread using NFL yardage differential: each 0.15 yards per play is worth 1 point. As an example, let’s examine Monday’s game of Green Bay at Philadelphia.
According to NFL.com, the Eagles are gaining 6.7 yards per play this season, while allowing 5.0 yards per play – a differential of +1.7. The Packers are gaining 5.4 Y/P, while allowing 5.9 Y/P, for a net differential of -0.5. The Eagles’ net differential is 2.2 better; dividing by 0.15 suggests the Eagles should be about a 14.5 point favorite on a neutral field.
As with all tools for evaluating teams, this calculation is best used in conjunction with other handicapping methods and using common sense. Many statistical methods become far more viable after 4-6 games so the current season’s data can be analyzed. However, even at this early stage, these types of statistical methods can be a good way to look for new winning angles – like identifying under-priced big favorites.
What are players betting at the Pinnacle Online Sportsbook?
Ohio State (-7 +103) at Iowa
We initially offered the Buckeyes at -6.5 (-105) and took early public money. Ohio State has been a high-profile team for several years and continues to attract a lot of attention. If OSU wins this game, they face only one more top-25 team this season – at home versus rival Michigan. With major BCS ramifications on the line, this game has split opinion between the public and the sharps, with the professionals backing Iowa.
Georgia Tech +9 -104 at Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech has a reputation as a team that starts strong but tends to fade midseason. They struggled against Cincinnati last week, trailing 10-5 at halftime before rallying with 17 fourth quarter points to win 29-13. None of the Hokies’ wins have been against quality opponents and bettors are punishing them for this. Virginia Tech opened at -13, which was quickly bet down to -9 by the public who favors Georgia Tech.
Indianapolis Colts -9 +100 at New York Jets
This line opened with Indianapolis giving 7.5 points where early bettors forced the line to -9. Despite moderately balanced action, there have been more wagers on the Colts, although the early wise guys clearly favor the Jets.
New England +6 -110 at Cincinnati Bengals
The undefeated Bengals are riding high following their road victory against the defending Super Bowl Champions, while the Patriots are reeling from a 17-7 home loss to Denver. The Pats opened getting 4 points and although they haven’t been bigger underdogs since 2004, the Bengals backing has been surprising. The sharps have been fairly split on this game – playing the Bengals at -4 and taking the Patriots at +6.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-09-21T21:45:00.000-07:00

The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Professional players dedicate many hours each week shopping for the best price, and will often spend more time in this endeavor than handicapping. Given that the sharps are betting high limits each week, this is time well spent even if it adds only 1% to the bottom line. But how can the average player making $100 bets get the best price without turning odds checking into a full-time job?
Half the battle is won in preparation, so before beginning to handicap, have your money in place. Ideally, you’ll take advantage of Pinnacle Sportsbook’s -104 NFL pricing which offers up to 60% better value on NFL sides than other online sportsbooks. Plus you’ll also have one or two "recreational books", which use inflated lines on the favorites.
It’s also a good idea to keep a fair amount of money liquid in a NETeller account, where it can be put into play quickly. Most sports books, including Pinnacle Sportsbetting, instantly credit accounts with NETeller deposits. Even limiting odds comparison to just 10 minutes per week, this small amount of preparation still adds 1% to the expected return.
Another tactic bettors can use to always get the best price doesn’t involve any additional work, but instead emphasizes the importance of timing. Instead of handicapping during mid-week or Friday for weekend games, players should begin analyzing the games immediately after the weeks’ games are completed. Reviewing college football games Saturday night or Sunday morning and NFL games Sunday evening, gives players one more money-spinning opportunity – betting into overnight lines.
Many sportsbooks typically post overnight lines on all major sports. College and pro football usually go up Sunday night, and are very volatile when the lines are first posted. These lines don’t have to be extremely sharp because early betting quickly tightens prices against reduced limits.
A well known anecdote among linesmakers at Pinnacle Sports is that the first few bets taken on any overnight line are ALWAYS sharp plays. These bets are made by smaller bettors who have already analyzed the games and don’t mind the lower limits. The early bettors are often long-term winners, who are among the few that actually get the best of it time and again. However, it’s worth conceding this edge to the early sharps as they provide an invaluable service by sharpening the lines, allowing PinnacleSports.com to raise limits to significant levels. Without these early "$100 geniuses", we couldn’t offer $30,000 limits on NFL games (which are sometimes blue-circled to $50,000 or higher per wager).
I can’t stress strongly enough that if your average bet-size is $500 or less, the one thing you can do to win more is bet against overnight lines. This is especially the case with the smaller markets like NCAA football totals. If betting into early lines seems a little intimidating, try this experiment: For four weeks, track the opening lines. When making plays, make a record of whether you would have gotten a better price on the opener, or against the closing line. Nearly all players will find that with the exception of significant injury news or changeable weather conditions, the line moves during the week give them a worse price than if they had bet it early.
For those already doing early handicapping and using a moderate sportsbook selection, there are other ways to be a smarter shopper while still working your day job.
If you’re willing to spend just a little more time bargain-hunting, the best time to do so is when the lines are moving more quickly. For example, say the line at the Pinnacle Sportsbook is shifting against you, try making your play at a recreational book that moves its lines more slowly. On the other hand, if you like the direction of the line change, wait for the market to stabilize, and take the best price. The trick is to recognize when these movements occur. After the normal bouncing around of openers, there are two other factors that routinely cause substantial movement: injury announcements and large bets before game time.
In the final 60 minutes before a game kicks off, there are often dramatic changes in the price. This is often caused by syndicate play, which waits until close to post when the betting limits are highest everywhere. If you’re prepared to stare at a live lines screen for the 60 minutes before a set of games goes off (for example the early NFL games every Sunday), you’ll find many line moves that are big enough to scalp. Waiting until this time period to place bets allows you to either play at the fast-moving sites like Pinnacle Sports Book or the slower moving recreational books depending on which way lines move.
Injury plays are another way to make a killing, but bettors have to be quick on the trigger. When a star player is listed as doubtful or out of the next game, there will be a tidal wave of action. The premier books may either take the game offline, circle the game and set lower limits, or drastically change the price when the news comes out. Beating the book to the punch gives an almost certain scalping opportunity by playing the other side after the line movements. Even if you miss the initial surge, a lot of smaller sportsbooks will leave the old prices up.
What are our customers betting?
Northwestern v Nevada O/U 47.5
With over 100 NCAA Div-IA teams, not to mention the various Div-IAA teams, we have to price a lot of product quickly for openers every Sunday afternoon. Some numbers - especially totals – can be a bit loose when they open. This total was set at 52 and was quickly corrected by our "$20 geniuses". When four of our smaller sharps play the same side of a college total opener, we get to a good price cheaply.
Baltimore -6.5 -105 v. Cleveland
The Ravens have played dominantly on both sides of the ball, outscoring their opponents 55-6 this season. The Browns have been lackluster, losing to New Orleans and Cincinnati. We opened Baltimore at -4 and favorite money poured in. Early money on the favorite was taken at the rate of twenty bets on the Ravens for each one accepted on the Browns.
Philadelphia -6 -110 v. San Francisco
The Eagles opened as a 4-point favorite and were immediately bet up by the public. Once again, a majority of the money was fading the underdog with five bets on the Eagles for every one on the 49ers.
Atlanta -3.5 -108 v. New Orleans
Although this game isn’t until Monday night, it’s our most heavily traded game this week. The Saints opened at +3 -115 and were driven up to +3.5 +100. While the betting is fairly equal on both sides, market drift has pushed this price up. We are seeing a lot of favorites heavily backed and we can’t help but wonder whether the favorites will repeat their 58% cover rate ATS in 2005.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines and rebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-09-13T22:22:00.000-07:00

Interesting release by Simon. I love correlation plays.

The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Every once in a while, despite the best bookmaking and balancing of positions, sportsbook managers find a surprise in their daily summaries, like a player hitting a $1 million 8-team parlay. Though the occasional player hitting a home-run on a parlay should be expected, when a big one hits, it can catch sportsbooks off guard. Parlays are one of the most misunderstood tools in the betting industry, which is why books offer them. Like the familiar proverb, give a player enough rope, and…… well, you know the rest.
There are two common ways parlays are played that guarantee the book a long-term profit. Many recreational players are focused on the "big win" like hitting eight plays at -110, to win $100,000 from a $66 stake. While it can be a blast when the first three legs hit, I’ve seen people nearly go into cardiac arrest after winning the first seven, leaving one play pending on Monday night for an all-or-nothing life changing win. Sweaty and stressed, these parlay junkies invariably end up cracking and trying to hedge out the parlay.
The fundamental problem with playing parlays is that risk management is impossible. Assume our friend who was betting $66 tickets had a bankroll of $10,000. By Monday night, this parlay bettor is risking $51,200 (in equity) to win $48,800. They’re now risking more than five-sixths of their bankroll on one play. For recreational gambling this is fine, but for a professional, this kind of tactic would make Kelly roll over in his grave.
Another common play is parlaying a lot of favorites that "can’t lose" to generate a payout close to even money. One parlay for college football I saw included: Va. Tech -535, Rutgers -405, NC State -405 and Purdue -1070. In this parlay, the player risked $100 to win $101.80. This common strategy of parlaying favorites is a classic case of mathematical denial. The player FEELS like all the sure things will win, and the thought is reinforced by seeing many of the selections succeed with the occasional parlay paying off. The mathematical certainty however, is that every parlay selection added increases the "juice" paid. Parlaying big favorites like this (without sophisticated handicapping) will NOT make money in the long run.
If this is the case, then why do wise guys play parlays? One reason sharps play parlays is that they may find a correlation. Correlated parlays are the "holy grail" of sports betting – finding and betting these almost guarantees a win. These are so dangerous that even small correlations (e.g. in MLB, playing the visitor with the over or the home team with the under) can gradually destroy a sportsbook. Sharp players identify these correlations and hoard the information along with the names of sportsbooks known to take action on these correlated bets. If you try to make a parlay at Pinnacle Sportsbook and our software rejects the play, there’s a good chance the play is correlated.

There’s another type of parlay that sharps use which called an "action" parlay. Many times, a player wants to bet more than a book’s limit. This is especially prevalent against overnight lines or smaller markets like Tennis and NASCAR. Assume you see an opening line that is badly off e.g. +150 when the fair line is +100. When discovering these huge edges, bettors logically want to bet as much as they can.
One way to do this would be to play the +150 selection parlayed with 10 random games at -110. If you win and lose exactly five of these selections, you’ve effectively bet five times as much on the +150 selection, but lowered the payoff (since you paid more juice with the random selections). This isn’t a good idea if you have a normal 53% play versus -110, but it’s a tool to remember when there’s a monster play in a small market. At Pinnacle Sportsbetting we’ve customized the software to defend against this type of strategy, but there may be less astute sportsbooks out there that haven’t.
Another way sharps use this strategy is to play two or three-team parlays with one open leg. They’ll do their usual plays for the early legs, and close them out with the monsters. For example, they’ll risk $1,000 on a three-team parlay and after winning the first two legs, they can effectively risk $3300 to win $3000 by closing that last leg.
If you play a lot of parlays (or even teasers, which are just modified parlays), you need to spend significantly more time on risk management. Not only could you be overexposed on a game (like the 8-team parlay discussed earlier), but you could be underexposed as well.
If the first leg of a two-team teaser/parlay has lost, you have no action on the second leg. Sharper players will routinely evaluate their positions at the conclusion of each leg, and make additional bets to ensure they have an adequate position on each game they like.
What are our players betting this week?
Michigan (+5.5 +100) v. Notre Dame
In one of the most heavily bet college games, all the money has been on the Wolverines. We opened the Fighting Irish as 7.5-point favorites, but the public favored Michigan by a three-to-one ratio. To this point the sharps have been curiously absent on this game.
Oakland (+11.5 -101) v. Baltimore
We opened Baltimore as an 8-point favorite against the Raiders, who were routed 27-0 by San Diego Monday night. A few sharps played Oakland at the open, but they were swamped by public money. Public backers of Baltimore have five times as many wagers as Raider backers. It’s very common to see public bettors fade a team that looks terrible in the first week, even though more often than not, teams revert to the mean after an "Oaklandish" performance. A few early sharps agreed by backing the Raiders before the early runaway line. Expect the other sharps to back Oakland hard once the line stabilizes.
Super Featherweight Championship: Barrera -150 v. Juarez +140
These two fighters battled out to an apparent draw on May 21st earlier this year. Thirty minutes after a draw was announced, the judges came back and declared Barrera the winner due to a corrected scorecard error. How do you handle something like that? Rematch! Barrera opened as a -200 favorite. Although twice as many bettors have backed Barrera, the sharps are on Juarez, and have driven the price down.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Odds to Win The Heisman Trophy & BCS Championship

2006-08-29T09:45:00.000-07:00

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
odds to Win The Heisman Trophy And BCS Championship from pinnaclesports.com
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (August 29, 2006)—Although the 2006 college football season doesn’t kick off until later this week, the national champion and Heisman Trophy debates are already heating up. Adding fuel to the pre-season NCAA football hype, PinnacleSports.com today released updated odds on who will be crowned the nation’s top collegiate player and which team will capture the BCS National Championship.
The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com currently lists Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn as the pre-season favorite to become the Fighting Irish’s eighth Heisman Trophy winner at 3/1 odds. Oklahoma junior running back Adrian Peterson has been listed with the second best odds to win college football’s top honor at 4/1. Dual threat quarterback Troy Smith (9/1) will attempt to bring Ohio State it’s first Heisman Trophy since Eddie George in 1995, while teammates Michael Bush (12/1) and Brian Brohm (14/1) both hope to become Louisville’s first Heisman winner. Other leading candidates to be named college football’s most outstanding player include: West Virginia quarterback Steve Slaton (16/1); Florida signal caller Chris Leak (20/1); Cal running back Marshawn Lynch (21/1); Michigan running back Mike Hart (23/1); Ohio State wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. (23/1); Iowa quarterback Drew Tate (25/1) and Notre Dame tailback Darius Walker (26/1).
While all 119 Division I teams enter the new season on equal footing with championship aspirations, the oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com believe only a handful stand any real chance of winning the BCS Championship Game on January 8th. In what’s certainly a surprise, the West Virginia Mountaineers are currently a 13/2 favorite to win the national championship mainly because of their relatively soft schedule and betting to date. Notre Dame is a slight underdog to capture their 14th national title at 7/1 odds, followed by top-ranked Ohio State at 15/2. Despite losing the last two Heisman Trophy winners and a number of other stars, PinnacleSports.com believes USC is a solid championship contender again this season, listing the Trojans at 8/1 to win another national title. The Chris Leak-led Florida Gators are 10/1 to bring a championship back to the Swamp, while reigning national champion Texas currently stands at 12/1 to repeat this year. Other teams that could be victorious in the January 8th BCS Championship Game include: Auburn (14/1), Oklahoma (14/1), Florida State (21/1), Miami (21/1), Louisville (24/1), LSU (26/1), California (28/1) and Michigan (29/1).
PinnacleSports.com also offers odds on which teams will win several of the major Division I conference championships as well as lines on total regular season wins by a number of college teams. In addition, the sportsbook has posted betting lines on every game taking place during the opening weekend of the season as well as a number of marquee match-ups taking place throughout the entire 2006 NCAA campaign. For a more information and a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.

Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*
Odds To Win 2006 Heisman Trophy
Brady Quinn 3/1
Adrian Peterson 4/1
Troy Smith 9/1
Michael Bush 12/1
Brian Brohm 14/1
Steve Slaton 16/1
Chris Leak 20/1
Marshawn Lynch 21/1
Mike Hart 23/1
Ted Ginn Jr. 23/1
Drew Tate 25/1
Darius Walker 26/1
Kenny Irons 27/1
Chad Henne 29/1
Kyle Wright 32/1
Drew Stanton 35/1
Kenneth Darby 37/1
Blake Mitchell 37/1
Drew Weatherford 37/1
JaMarcus Russell 37/1
Reggie Ball 37/1

Odds To Win BCS Championship Game
West Virginia 13/2
Notre Dame 7/1
Ohio State 15/2
USC 8/1
Florida 11/1
Texas 12/1
Auburn 14/1
Oklahoma 14/1
Florida State 21/1
Miami 21/1
Louisville 24/1
LSU 26/1
California 28/1
Michigan 29/1
Iowa 35/1
Virginia Tech 58/1
Clemson 71/1
Penn State 74/1
Alabama 85/1
Michigan State 81/1
UCLA 85/1
Georgia 85/1
Nebraska 85/1
Oregon 85/1
Arizona State 85/1
Tennessee 85/1
Arkansas 100/1
Boston College 120/1
TCU 120/1
Purdue 200/1
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-08-24T23:33:00.000-07:00

The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Debating the merits of betting on preseason NFL, I’m often asked about the logic of betting games when the starters spend most of their time on the sideline. While many professional players avoid preseason football, a substantial number of sharps at Pinnacle Sports betting still have action, despite this concern and do so for one reason – profit. With fewer professional players betting (compared to the regular season), preseason games give an additional advantage as the markets are not as efficient, allowing sports bettors "in the know" to realize better returns.
Successful NFL bettors understand the differences between regular season and preseason games. A coach’s preseason focus isn’t purely centered on winning, but embraces a range of objectives, including: 1. avoiding injury to starters; 2. giving starters enough playing time to shake the off the rust, and 3. evaluating players who are close to making the team.
During the preseason non-starters see a lot of playing time even though most have only practiced the offensive and defensive schemes for a few weeks. The offensive side is more difficult to pick up quickly – offensive linemen must coordinate blocking against potential blitzes, and new quarterbacks need to learn to read defenses under pressure.
The effect during this period is that offenses are usually trying catch-up to defenses. Consequently, where a typical NFL game averages about 43 points per game, preseason games only average 37.5 points, with the median being even lower. While it’s surprising how much lower-scoring preseason games are, it’s even more startling that the markets are not adjusted accordingly. If you played every single "under" in preseason, you would have won 55% of your bets over the last six years.
Another trend that might surprise players is how well underdogs have done in the preseason – like the ‘under’ trend, betting every dog would also show a small profit in recent years. I don’t recommend that bettors blindly play all underdogs and unders, as any trend will eventually turn sour as markets become more efficient. For example, examine this year’s preseason totals. The average total for the first week was under 35 while last year it was over 36. You may win or lose betting a trend, but you won’t be getting the best of it.
Instead of strictly chasing a trend, try to understand why it’s occurring – asking "why" will often present additional opportunities. Once you understand that the scoring distributions are different, betting options that are derived on standard distributions might provide the chance for large profits. With this in mind, a possible angle to consider looking at is teasers...
One of the most important factors to consider when doing preseason analysis is whether the coach actually wants to win the game. Teams coming off a disappointing year are more likely to play for a win in the hope of building confidence and momentum for the season.
Some coaches will be far more experimental during preseason, taking the opportunity to try different combinations of players, or unusual plays that are rarely used in the regular season. Indianapolis’s opening onsides kick, and Cincinnati’s multiple flea-flickers are perfect examples of this. There’s a balance to be struck between the benefits of experimentation and the negative impact losing has on morale. Good teams have less need to build confidence and aren’t unsettled by preseason losses. Simply understanding the mentality of both teams’ coaches will provide profitable opportunities.
An additional factor to consider is how much playing time starters will get? Many coaches not only announce how much the starters will play, but when they’ll play. If a strong team is playing its starters for the whole first half against a weaker team that’s only using starters for one drive, there’s an obvious play. Another way to benefit from knowing starter playing time is to bet half and quarter lines. If both teams are playing starters for the first half, you have an expectation of a higher scoring first half (which is just the opposite of the regular season, where the second halves have slightly more scoring).
Later in the preseason, you can often find value backing winless teams with at least two preseason losses. While coaches don’t necessarily try to win every game (for the reasons already discussed), no team wants to enter the regular season after going winless during exhibition play.
Pinnacle Sports betting is currently offering up to 60% better value on sides and 50% better odds on totals during the NFL preseason. Find a smarter way to bet at PinnacleSports.com

Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

College Football Lines are Open at Pinnacle Sports

2006-08-18T13:32:00.000-07:00

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

College Football Betting Open at pinnaclesports.com
Online Sportsbook Opens Betting On NCAA Week 1 & Marquee Match-ups Of 2006 Season
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (August 18, 2006)—While the kickoff to the 2006 NCAA football season isn’t for another two weeks, fans can already get in on the action on all of the season’s big games at PinnacleSports.com. The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com has already opened wagering on every game taking place during the first week of the college football as well as on several marquee match-ups taking place each week of the NCAA season.
The first day of college games takes place on Thursday, August 31st with Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Gamecocks traveling to conference rival Mississippi State where PinnacleSports.com lists the host Bulldogs as 6 point underdogs in Starkville. On the first Saturday of games, Heisman hopeful Brady Quinn and Notre Dame kick off the second season of the Charlie Weis regime at Georgia Tech where the Fighting Irish are 7.5 point favorites. The biggest match-up of the opening week pits in-state rivals Miami (Florida) and Florida State squaring off in the Orange Bowl where the Hurricanes are favored by 3.5 points over the Seminoles.
In addition to posting betting lines on the full schedule of games taking place during the first week of the NCAA season, PinnacleSports.com is also taking wagers on several of the most anticipated games taking place each week during the entire 14-week regular season. These marquee match-ups include:
Ohio State (pick ‘em) at reigning national champion Texas on September 9th
Michigan (+6) visiting Notre Dame on September 16th
October 7th’s "Red River Shootout" between Texas (-2.5) and Oklahoma
Florida (-4) vs Georgia at "The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" October 28th
Louisville (-3.5) hosting West Virginia on November 4th
Michigan (+6) at rival Ohio State November 18th
"The Iron Bowl" November 18th with Auburn (-3.5) facing in-state rival Alabama
Notre Dame (+3) hoping to avenge 2005’s last second loss to USC November 25th
Florida (+1.5) traveling to Florida State on November 25th
Cross-town rivals USC (-12) facing UCLA December 2nd
"It’s simply not enough to give our players the opportunity to bet on the first week of college games, so for the second straight year we’ve offered lines on the best match-ups of each week throughout the entire season," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "Whether bettors like Ohio State to beat reigning national champs Texas in Austin on September 9th, or favor Notre Dame avenging last season’s last second loss to USC, they’ll find lines on all of the biggest games at PinnacleSports.com."
PinnacleSports.com also has compiled odds on a number of NCAA teams winning the BCS Championship Game where Notre Dame is a slight favorite at +684 (i.e., win $6.84 for every $1 bet) to win their first title since 1988 over surprise West Virginia (+703) and top-ranked Ohio State (+730). In addition, the online sportsbook lists Brady Quinn as the early favorite to become the seventh Heisman Trophy winner in Notre Dame history at 7/4 odds. Bettors can also place wagers on the total number of regular season wins by every Division IA NCAA team exclusively at PinnacleSports.com.
For a more information and a complete list of odds, please visit the football section at www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-08-17T15:38:00.000-07:00

The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
The beginning of the NFL season is similar to the start of a new year -- providing a perfect opportunity for players to ‘wipe the slate clean’ and carry out a health-check on their betting, much like the soul-searching on New Year’s Day that results in life-enhancing resolutions. With this in mind, Pinnacle Sports has assembled ten Gambler’s Resolutions; but don’t worry, these don’t involve exercising or giving up beer!
While you may already apply some of these golden rules for improved betting; others may be new to you. In either case, carefully applying this set of guidelines, should help you become more successful betting football.
Top 10 Gambler’s Resolutions
1. Get the best price
If you make only one NFL resolution this year, promise yourself to ALWAYS obtain the best available price. At PinnacleSports.com, we offer -104 lines on NFL sides saving players up to 60% of the juice other books charge. Holding an account at Pinnacle will, therefore, save you a fortune during the season regardless of whether you’re a professional handicapper or a "weekend warrior".
Put another way, a player has to win close to 53% of their bets just to break even at traditional -110 pricing offered by other sportsbooks. At a low juice sports book like Pinnacle Sportsbetting, you only need to win just 51% of your plays to break even.
2. Learn conversions
Serious players know how often a 3-point home-favorite will win by exactly 3. If they see a spread of New England -7.5 quoted at -104, they can also immediately reason what the fair price is for New England to cover a 7 point spread or any other spread for that matter. Knowing these conversions not only helps you find the best bets, but aids in analyzing props and other markets such as teasers. Many players are long term winners despite applying absolutely no handicapping by simply unearthing opportunities by meticulously studying conversions.
3. Understand the Pinnacle Lean
A lot of sharp players use Pinnacle Sports because of our unrivalled pricing, and their plays tell us (as well as indirectly all other players) which side of a game to be on. Time and again we’ve seen players track "the Pinnacle lean" and win. The concept is simple: compare Pinnacle’s line to other sportsbooks. If the lines are different, you can beat the other book. For example, if Pinnacle Sportsbetting has the Arizona Cardinals -7.5 and another book lists them at -7, the value lies in playing at the other sportsbook. (For a more detailed explanation, look at Pinnacle Pulse Issue 08 from last year).
4. Keep good records
Keeping an accurate track record of your plays can reveal areas of weakness you may not have been previously aware of. You might find that you win in most markets, but consistently lose money in one particular area. For example, you may crush the book on NFL sides, but get killed on totals. A bettor may also flourish at a particular point of the season and be unsuccessful at another. PinnacleSports.com offers clients a comprehensive account review facility that highlights these trends, which can then be corrected, maximized or avoided.
5. Use good risk management
Risk management is perhaps the most misunderstood and undervalued concept in sports betting. If you bet for fun, the average cost for a bet is based on the juice or vig. For example, betting $100 on an NFL game using standard -110 pricing at a traditional sportsbook has an average cost of $5 per game. If you do no handicapping and just play for kicks, betting 100 games at $100 each, you should expect to lose $500 in a season.
Winning players must understand this too. It’s possible to be a successful handicapper, but still lose long-term by betting more money than your advantage dictates. A sensible tactic for winning players is to never risk more than 3% of bankroll on any given play and to always shop for the best price.
6. Manage Expectations
Many players bet with no idea of what to expect long term. Some are too optimistic in assessing their capabilities, especially novice players, who plan their retirement on the basis of an early winning streak. In major sports very few players can expect to win more than 55%. If you’re just playing for fun or excitement, hitting exactly 50% is a realistic expectation.
7. Select your Sportsbook wisely
Many sportsbooks will offer promotions to encourage new players to sign up. At Pinnacle Sports for instance, new players will receive a 10% sign up bonus worth up to $500 just for trying our service.
The general rule of thumb is that if a promotion looks too good to be true, it probably is. There have been some horrific sportsbook failures and nearly all were a result of unsustainable promotions. If a sportsbook gives a large bonus, lets you buy on/off the "3" for 10 cents, or offers a similar promotion that makes it look "easy" to beat, you’re risking getting burned.
As a general rule of thumb, stick to solid sports books that have been established for at least five years. A good starting point for new players is to build a sportsbook portfolio that includes at least one reduced-juice book like PinnacleSports.com, which offers up to 60% better odds than traditional sportsbooks. In the long run playing reduced vig lines at Pinnacle Sportsbook is worth much more than any sign-up bonus.
8. Limit your bankroll
Bankroll is traditionally defined as the amount of money a bettor is prepared to lose before they’ll stop wagering. Decide what your bankroll is before the season begins and stick to it. If you hit a losing streak (everyone will at some point), reduce the bet size relative to your lower bankroll. If you haven’t thought about your bankroll before, now is a good time. By failing to address this fundamental aspect of gambling you could easily lose more than you ever intended.
9. Define your goals
Whether you’re a professional or recreational bettor, give yourself clear objectives. If you’re a pro, don’t just focus on hitting a financial target, think about how you’ll reach it. This might include doing statistical analysis on smaller markets, making larger plays where there’s an edge, or just protecting your bank until the season ends. In each case, be sure to identify and remain focused on the goal.
10. Understand why you bet
Different people bet for different reasons. A minority are skillful enough to make a living from sports betting, but the motivation for the vast majority of players is less obvious, even to themselves. Some enjoy the intellectual challenge of analyzing a match-up, while others bet to add excitement to watching a live game. Be honest with yourself about what your motivation is, as understanding why you bet will help you make better decisions.

This is the first issue of the second year of "The Pinnacle Pulse". The first series was well received and assisted a lot of players, but we’re always open to questions or topic suggestions on sports betting. Feel free to email us at askthebook@pinnaclesports.com.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Golf Odds for Final Major 2006

2006-08-14T12:05:00.000-07:00

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Tiger Woods A Huge Favorite To Win PGA CHampionship
PinnacleSports.com Releases Odds On Golf’s Final Major In 2006
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (August 14, 2006)—After winning back-to-back tournaments, which included his 11th major championship at the British Open and 50th career title at the Buick Open, Tiger Woods is back on top of his game just two months after missing the cut at a major for the first time in his illustrious career at the U.S. Open. Entering this weekend’s major at Medinah Country Club on a hot streak, PinnacleSports.com lists Woods as an overwhelming 9/4 favorite to tame the field and capture his third PGA Championship.
The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com made Woods the favorite in this year’s previous three majors, but notes that his odds in the PGA have been cut in half from both the U.S. and British Open where Tiger was a 5/1 favorite. When making Woods such a large favorite, the odds makers at PinnacleSports.com took into consideration his current play, 1999 PGA Championship win at Medinah, past performance in majors, ability to perform under pressure and statistics for the year among several others factors.
Although it appears he’s yet to recover from his monumental collapse at the U.S. Open, reigning champion Phil Mickelson is currently listed at 10/1 to repeat at the PGA Championship. PinnacleSports.com believes Ernie Els (14/1) and Jim Furyk (16/1) are solid contenders in the 156-player field to win their first PGA Championship, while Vijay Singh (16/1) hopes to win the event for the third time. Several other players looking for their first PGA Championship could also finish atop the leaderboard at the 72-hole tournament, including: Retief Goosen (25/1), Sergio Garcia (28/1), Adam Scott (30/1), Luke Donald (35/1), Padraig Harrington (45/1) and Chris DiMarco (50/1). PinnacleSports.com lists reigning U.S. Open champion Geoff Ogilvy at 50/1 in the PGA, while 2001 champion David Toms is a 60/1 long shot.
Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*
Odds To Win 2006 PGA Championship (Favorites)
Tiger Woods 9/4
Phil Mickelson 10/1
Ernie Els 14/1
Jim Furyk 16/1
Vijay Singh 16/1
Retief Goosen 25/1
Sergio Garcia 28/1
Adam Scott 30/1
Luke Donald 35/1
Padraig Harrington 45/1
Chris DiMarco 50/1
Geoff Ogilvy 50/1
Mike Weir 60/1
David Toms 60/1
Stuart Cink 60/1
Stuart Appleby 65/1
For a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

Pinnacle Sports Odds on Golf's Final Major 2006

2006-08-14T12:03:00.000-07:00

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-07-08T12:11:00.000-07:00

The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
There have now been 48 games completed in the group stage and 14 knock-out games played in the 2006 World Cup. As the tournament reaches its climax in Berlin this weekend, handicappers and sharp bettors have more and more information available for analysis.
Many people were surprised that the Italy vs. France total opened at 1.5 goals. For diehard handicappers playing at the Pinnacle Sports book, this was expected. How did they know? Many handicappers use a universal handicapping system which can be used to set lines for any sport and requires only minimal adjustments for injuries and other situational factors.
Whether you are handicapping a total in baseball or soccer, the first step in any sport is to set a baseline figure for an average game. In other words, how many goals are scored in an average game during regulation time?
In the group stage, there were 117 goals scored in 48 games, for an average offensive production (and defense allowed) of 2.44 goals per match resulting in 1.22 goals per team per game.
In the knockout stages, there have been 21 goals scored in 14 games during regulation time, for an average of 0.75 goals per team per game (excluding any extra time played or penalty shoot outs). If you combined the two, your "baseline" is 1.11 goals per team per game (138 goals in 62 games). The next step in setting your baseline is to compare each team’s offense and defense against this average.
France has scored 8 goals while allowing 2 goals in its 6 games played so far. Les Bleus’ defense was 0.78 goals per game better than average (1.11 – 2/6), while its offense was 0.22 goals better than average (8/6-1.11). France’s offensive "power rating" would be +0.22, while its defensive rating would be -0.78 (with negative numbers being good for defensive ratings).
Meanwhile Italy has scored 9 goals in regulation while allowing just 1 against (count the own goal against the US as a goal allowed). Italy’s offensive rating would be (9/6 – 1.11) = +0.39, while its defensive rating would be (1/6 – 1.1) = -0.94.
The Azzurri’s offensive rating might be slightly understated though, since we did not include the 2 goals they scored in overtime against Germany in the semi-final. The reason for this is that only goals scored during regulation time count for betting purposes when wagering on total goals.
With these raw numbers, you can now make an estimate of how much each team will score in regulation. How many goals would we expect Italy to score? Start with your league average (1.11 goals per team per game), add Italy’s offensive rating (+0.39) and France’s defensive rating (-0.78). This suggests that we expect Italy to score about 0.72 goals, but remember that all teams tend to revert to the mean/average.
I "revert to the mean" by averaging this with the league average of 1.11 goals, for 0.92 expected goals (1.11+0.72/2 = 0.92). For France, we initially expect (1.11 + 0.22 – 0.94) = 0.39 goals. Averaging this with the league average 1.11 goals per game, we expect 0.75 goals.
If you want to convert these expected goals to a moneyline price for "Italy to win the World Cup", simply take Italy’s expected goals, divide by France’s expected goals, and multiply by -100. In this case, it would be (0.92 / 0.75 * -100) = -123, which is pretty close to the current odds for Italy.
If you want to convert these numbers to a game total, simply add the team expected goals, and using probability theory check a Poisson distribution for any odds you want to set. For example, if you wanted a price on over 1.5, look at the Poisson function for (.92 + .75 = 1.67). Oddly enough, this goes under 1.5 50.3% of the time, and over 49.7% (exactly on market price). If you don’t have a chart handy with Poisson distributions, you can find an online worksheet at http://sharpsportsbetting.com/docs/prop_tools.shtml .
There are a few more things you can add in to gain additional precision. The first is an adjustment for "strength of schedule" by simply comparing how a team’s previous opponents did against the league/tournament average. While this becomes less important when many games are played, it can be extremely important in short tournaments or when it is early in the season.
Before firing off your bet, you should also consider situational factors. For example, France’s striker Louis Saha will miss the final due to a suspension for receiving two yellow yards in the knock out stages. While you may decide that this shouldn’t have an impact on the game, you must ALWAYS check the teams for injuries and suspensions in any sport. Failing to account for missing players is one of the easiest ways to the poor house.
I hope you have enjoyed the first year of the "Pinnacle Pulse" from Pinnacle Sports betting. We will be taking a short break from the column over the summer but will return when the NFL preseason begins. In the meantime, feel free to write with your questions to askthebook@pinnaclesports.com and I will try to include the answers in future columns.
What are players betting?
Italy vs. France under 1.5 -108
We are seeing a recurring pattern among many of our sharps. They play the under on the match, and sell off their position during the live betting. 60% of the goals scored in the knockout stages have come in the second half (with similar distributions in most soccer leagues). However the public’s pattern for live betting has been nearly oblivious to this, treating it as more of a 50/50 distribution.

Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

College World Series Odds

2006-06-15T10:34:00.000-07:00

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Pinnaclesports.com posts odds on college world series
Cal State Fullerton, Rice & Clemson Favorites In Omaha
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (June 14, 2006)—Eight teams will vie for the national championship when the 60th Men’s College World Series gets underway at Omaha’s Rosenblatt Stadium this week. For only the second time since 1991, seven teams have reached the finals in Omaha in 2006 that were not part of the CWS field last year. A new national champion will also be crowned as 2005 champs Texas were eliminated in the regional. With college baseball’s championship tournament set to start this week, PinnacleSports.com has released updated odds on which team will win the 2006 College World Series.
The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com has calculated individual odds on the eight remaining teams capturing this year’s College World Series title. The Cal St. Fullerton Titans, which sports the nation’s best team ERA, have opened as early favorites at 3/1 odds to capture their fifth national championship despite being seeded fifth in the tournament. Pinnaclesports.com lists the 2003 champion and second-seeded Rice Owls with the second-best odds at 16/5, just slightly behind Fullerton. Although they’re the top seed in the eight team tournament, the Clemson Tigers have only been listed with the third best odds to win their first CWS at 9/2. Georgia Tech, who’ll face their ACC rival Clemson in the tournament’s first game, come in at 6/1, while the only team returning to Omaha, Oregon State is at 7/1. Despite holding the fourth seed in the tournament, North Carolina has been made a 9/1 long shot to win the national championship, while Miami (13/1) and Georgia (14/1) round out the field.
"Pitching is always at a premium in the College World Series, which is why we’ve made Cal St. Fullerton, Rice and Clemson, three of the nation’s top five in team ERA, as the favorites in Omaha," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "With five players totaling double-digit homeruns this year and ranking third nationally in runs scored per game, Georgia Tech’s offensive firepower could easily propel them to the school’s first baseball championship."
In addition to offering odds on which team will win the College World Series, PinnacleSports.com has also created unique betting propositions on the tournament. Despite half of the participants coming from the Atlantic Coast Conference, the odds that an ACC team wins the national championship are a 8/5 underdog. PinnacleSports.com will accept wagers on every game of the CWS including run lines, money lines and totals. For a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*
Odds To Win 2006 College World Series
Cal State Fullerton 3/1
Rice 16/5
Clemson 9/2
Georgia Tech 6/1
Oregon St. 7/1
North Carolina 9/1
Miami (FL) 13/1
Georgia 14/1
Will An ACC Team Win The CWS?
No 5/9
Yes 8/5
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 80 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-06-14T11:28:00.000-07:00

The Pinnacle Pulse
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
With three games gone in the NBA Championship series, there have been more than a few surprises. Even casual NBA followers were surprised at how low scoring the first two games were. Game 1 had a total of 170 points scored (with a total of 192.5), whereas Game 2 had 183 points scored (with the total at 188). Only Game 3 went over as 194 points were scored while the total closed at 189.5.
While many can set a basketball total line based on "feel", the deadliest totals players at Pinnacle Sportsbook combine statistical analysis with a subjective understanding of the teams. If you want to set a baseline, you should begin analysis by looking at five statistics: each team’s average points scored, average points allowed by each team, and the league scoring average.
During the regular season, Dallas scored an average of 99.1 points per game while allowing 93.1 points per game. Miami scored 99.9 points per game and allowed 96. An inexperienced bettor might use just those four numbers and assume their average (96.8 per team, or 193.7 per game) will carry forward. The problem with using straight averages is that it dilutes the affects of high or low statistics.
If team "A" scores five points more than the league average, and this team plays a team with an average defense, you’d expect it to score five points more than average. If you take a straight average of these two statistics, you would predict team "A" to only score 2.5 points better than average, which is the wrong way to go about things.
A better way to set a baseline for a total is to compare a team’s statistics to the league average. For example, Dallas’s average of 99.1 points per game was 1.9 higher than the league average. The Mavericks’ defense (93.1 compared to NBA average of 97.2) was 4.1 lower than the NBA average. Miami scored 2.7 more per game (99.9 versus NBA average 97.2), while allowing 1.2 less (96 versus NBA avg. 97.2).
You now have four "totals adjusters": Dallas has +1.9 (offense) and -4.1 (defense); Miami has +2.7 (offense) and -1.2 (defense). Add them all up, and your "team total adjustment" is (1.9-4.1+2.7-1.2) = -0.7. Add this to the NBA game average (97.2 * 2), and you get a "baseline total" of 193.7 (which is close to the game 1 total of 192.5). This method is particularly accurate when you have two influential statistics that would move the line in the same direction – e.g. a team with a strong defense versus a weak offense.
The baseline gives a good general measure of a match-up, but coaching decisions can cause some significant changes. One of the biggest factors is the pace of a game. In general, the superior team will benefit from a faster pace. The more possessions in a game, the more likely the law of large numbers will win out. Most games have about 85-95 possessions per team. If you look at a box score, the number of possessions = field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers + 0.4 * free throw attempts. This same formula can be used to evaluate the normal "pace" of a team by reviewing its season-long statistics.
Plugging in the regular season stats and using the pace formula, will show that Dallas averages 90 possessions per game, while Miami averages 93 possessions. With the first two games of the series going under, you might have examined their pace. Did a coaching strategy slow the game down?
Using the possessions formula, Game 1 offered 89 possessions each, while Game 2 offered 90 each. This pace was fairly typical of these teams. To understand why these games went under (especially Game 1, which went under by 22_ points), look at another statistic: offensive efficiency.
Offensive efficiency is simply the average number of points scored by a team per 100 possessions. In the regular season, Dallas scored 99.1 points on 90 possessions per game for an offensive rating of 110. Miami allowed 93 points on 93 possessions, for a defensive rating of 100. One should be cautious using season averages because a lineup change or coaching philosophy can drastically change a team’s performance. Therefore, using stats from the last 10 games rather than the whole season may be better.
In Game 1, Dallas scored 90 points on 90 possessions, which was about five points less than one would guess looking at the teams’ ratings. Similarly, Miami only scored 80 points in 90 possessions, whereas the statistics of the two teams predict about 92.5 points. In Game 2, both teams again scored slightly less than their offensive efficiencies would suggest.
When a game result is a far call from what’s expected, the box-score can tell a lot. The first thing to check (both after an unusual result and before doing analysis) are player injuries. A starter getting a lot fewer minutes than normal in a competitive game is one indicator. Maybe the game played at a different pace than expected. Neither of these factors were the main cause in Game 1 – just poor shooting. If there’s no fundamental change in team tactics, shooting will revert to the mean (as it did in Game 2).
There is another factor to consider. Everyone has seen the frantic pace of the last minute of a close game. In Game 6 of the Dallas-Phoenix series, there were 10 possessions in the last 60 seconds as Phoenix pressed to equalize. In the first two Miami-Dallas games, there were only four possessions in the last minute of each blowout-game. It was a different story in Game 3 where there was no more than a two point difference between the teams at any stage during the last minute of the game. When handicapping the total, consider the spread as well. The closer the match, the more likely a frantic final minute or overtime is likely to occur.
Another important factor to consider when betting a total or any sport is the juice or ‘vig’ – the bookmaker's cut for taking a bet. All professional bettors know what a huge impact it has on whether you have won or lost at the end of the season. If a player wants to win $100 betting a total, he risks $110 with a traditional bookie. That extra $10 is the bookmaker's commission for taking the bet. This is known as -110 pricing.
At Pinnacle Sports Book, we don't charge the retail -110 price for placing bets on totals. On NBA totals, we use -105 style pricing instead which offers up to 50% better value than other sportsbooks and saves any player $5 on every $100 wager they make.
Put another way, a player has to win close to 53% of their totals just to break even at traditonal -110 pricing. At a low juice sports book like Pinnacle Sportsbetting, you only need to win just 51% of your plays to break even. Something to think about!
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-06-13T22:19:00.000-07:00

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Despite Long Layoff, tiger woods Remains U.S. Open Favorite
PinnacleSports.com Releases Odds On 2006 U.S. Open At Winged Foot
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (June 13, 2006)—When the 2006 U.S. Open tees off at Winged Foot Golf Club this week, it will mark the first professional tournament played by Tiger Woods since this year’s Masters. Following the death of his father, Woods has taken the longest layoff in his professional career and has not played golf competitively in nine weeks. Despite the lengthy absence from the PGA Tour, PinnacleSports.com still lists Tiger Woods as a 5/1 favorite to capture his third U.S. Open championship
The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com has calculated individual odds on 107 golfers of the 156-man field expected to participate in this year’s U.S. Open. Although he his performance may suffer from the long break, Tiger remains the favorite mainly due to overwhelming public support. Coming off his win at this year’s Masters, Phil Mickelson has been installed with the second best odds at 13/2 to capture his first U.S. Open. The oddsmakers have listed Vijay Singh at 14/1 to win at Winged Foot, while 2001 and 2004 U.S. Open champion Refief Goosen is 16/1 to capture the tournament for a third time. 2003 champion Jim Furyk and two-time winner Ernie Els are solid contenders at 20/1 and 22/1, respectively. Other players that may outlast the field and win the second major of the year include: Luke Donald (28/1); Adam Scott (28/1); David Toms (32/1); Sergio Garcia (45/1); David Howell (45/1) and Padraig Harrington (50/1). Last year’s champion Michael Campbell is a 90/1 long shot to become the first repeat winner at the U.S. Open since Curtis Strange in 1989.
With the rivalry between Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson the talk of the golf world, PinnacleSports.com has created betting options on the number of major championships won by each player this year. Although he’ll be one of the favorites in the remaining majors, Phil Mickelson is favored to finish the year with only the Masters title at 4/9 odds. The odds that the world’s top-ranked player will win two majors are at 11/5, while Mickelson is 16/1 to finish with three majors in ’06, and a huge 175/1 long shot to capture the elusive Grand Slam. Meanwhile, PinnacleSports.com currently favors Woods finishing 2006 major-less at 2/3 odds. Tiger is 2/1 to capture one major championship, 8/1 to win two, and 35/1 to win the remaining three majors this year.

Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*
Odds To Win 2006 U.S. Open (Favorites & Notables)
Tiger Woods 5/1
Phil Mickelson 13/2
Vijay Singh 14/1
Retief Goosen 16/1
Jim Furyk 20/1
Ernie Els 22/1
Luke Donald 28/1
Adam Scott 28/1
David Toms 32/1
Sergio Garcia 45/1
David Howell 45/1
Padraig Harrington 50/1
Tim Clark 55/1
Trevor Immelman 55/1
Stuart Appleby 60/1
Chad Campbell 60/1
Davis Love III 60/1
Mike Weir 65/1
Jose Maria Olazabal 80/1
Michael Campbell 90/1
Justin Leonard 110/1
Fred Couples 135/1

How Many Majors Will Phil Mickelson Win In 2006?
One 4/9
Two 11/5
Three 16/1
Grand Slam 175/1
How Many Majors Will Tiger Woods Win In 2006?
None 2/3
One 2/1
Two 8/1
Three 35/1
For a complete list of odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 80 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-04-05T14:35:00.000-07:00

The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble For this weeks Pulse, let’s switch gears and take a look at a recent phenomenon in online gaming that’s created a buzz on the forums and generated tremendous betting interest at the Pinnacle Sportsbook –American Idol. No other “event” at Pinnacle Sports has been growing as fast as wagering on American Idol. It has turned into a huge betting event with reasonably high limits and all sorts of profit-making potential for sharp bettors. Atthe Pinnacle Sports book, the action on this year’s series has increased five fold over the last installment of the hit show and now compares tothe Masters in terms of handle.Since becoming the first bookmaker in the world to offer odds on the show, Pinnacle Sportsbetting has tried to support this growth in wagering interest by expanding Idol betting offers. Every week there are now oddsto win American Idol, various elimination props and contestant versus contestant match-ups. Whether a fan of America’s top-rated show or only watching because of your wife or girlfriend, here are some of basic strategies to use when betting American Idol. Odds to Win There are a few things to consider when looking for the right win bet. First off, remember that this bet is for the long haul. Many people make the mistake of picking the performer who sang the best the previous week. This strategy leads to an underlay situation – betting a price, which is less than what it should be. All Idol contestants struggle at some point in the competition, so you should always look for value. In this year’s competition alone, two performers who had some of the best performances early in the series were subsequently bet down to low prices - Lisa Tucker and Ace Young. After just a few weeks, Tucker has already been eliminated, while Young is now a huge long shot to win America’s largest talent search. A better strategy is to look for performers who don’t necessarily get the praise from the judges, but show flashes of the talent necessary to go the distance. Another important thing to remember when betting any contestant to win is the demographic breakdown of the voters, the viewing public and potential future CD purchasers. Unlike sporting events, American Idol is not decidedon the field of play – it’s decided by the American public under the guiding influence of the shows producers. Therefore, to be successful betting on American Idol, put any personal opinions or prejudices aside and think like the majority of the voting public. Even if you think Elliott would look more at home at a Star Trek convention than in a contest for a major recording contract, remember that the typical voter is young, female and quite often, Southern. If a contestant cannot appeal to this demographic, no matter how much talent he or she possesses, they’ll struggle for votes. Looks, demeanorand charisma are extremely important. And it’s no coincidence that every Idol winner so far has hailed from a Southern state. Elimination Props Every week Pinnacle Sports betting offers a prop on who’ll be eliminated from the show each Wednesday night.
A suggestion to handicap this is to gauge an overall feel for who’s the least popular contestant left in the competition. Generally the least popular performers have recently appeared in the bottom three and will have been the target of repeated criticism from the judges. Two other resources to use are dialidol.com and votefortheworst.com. Dialidol.com measures the volume of each contestant’s voting line. While by no means a perfect science, it does give a good indication of who is generating votes and who isn’t. Meanwhile, votefortheworst.com is a sitethat attempts to build support for the worst competitor to keep them inthe competition for ‘entertainment’ value. The site has a proven track record of keeping performers around who most feel should have been voted off a long time ago.
Contestant vs. Contestant Match-ups
The best strategy for doing well on match-ups is to assess how close either of the contestants is to being eliminated. If neither is expected to be voted off of the show in the coming weeks, the value is almost always on the underdog. If both are expecting an imminent exit in the nearfuture, the favorite in the match-up might offer value.
This Weeks Idol Betting Odds to Win American Idol
Chris Daughtry +161
Katharine McPhee +314
Taylor Hicks +420
Kellie Pickler +700
Mandisa +909
Elliott Yamin +2000
Paris Bennett +2000
Ace Young +6000
Bucky Covington +15000

Who will be eliminated on April 5, 2006?
Bucky Covington +284
Elliot Yamin +310
Ace Young +311
Mandisa +351
Paris Bennett +786
Katharine McPhee +3320
Taylor Hicks +5000
Kellie Pickler +6000
Chris Daughtry +8000

Since last week’s show, at Pinnacle Sports most of the money has come in on two contestants: Taylor Hicks and Kellie Pickler. Taylor’s odds have steadily shortened from a high of over 5/1 a week ago to 21/5 (+420) to become the fifth American Idol. Not only is she votefortheworst.com’s pickthis week, but Kellie Pickler has also seen a rush of money as well and has gone from a little over 11/1 down to 7/1 to win the show. In the match-ups, Elliot Yamin has drawn steady support this week, especially versus Ace Young, while Taylor Hicks has been bet heavily against both Mandisa and current favorite Chris Daughtry.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker. With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-04-02T04:51:00.000-07:00

ODDS TO WIN 2006 WORLD SERIES FROM PINNACLESPORTS.COMNew York – New York? Yankees, Mets World Series Favorites WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (March 30, 2006)—This Sunday the curtain rises on the2006 Major League Baseball season with the boys of summer returning forthe sport’s 137th season. With the first pitch of the baseball seasoncoming this weekend, PinnacleSports.com today announced updated odds towin the 2006 World Series. The Internet’s largest sports betting site, PinnacleSports.com originally opened wagering on the 2006 World Series immediately following after the Chicago White Sox clinching victory in October’s that clinched the Fall Classic for the Chicago White Sox. At that time, the New York Yankees opened as a 5/1 favorite to win their 27th World Series title, but after receiving the most support from bettors, the Yankees’ championship oddshave been cut to 3/1. It appears that another Subway Series could be inthe making, as the oddsmakers believe in the revamped New York Mets who are listed with the second-best World Series odds at 7/1. The reigningWorld Series Champion Chicago White Sox are currently 8/1 to repeat along with the St. Louis Cardinals, who hope to break-in New Busch Stadium witha World Championship. Other teams that could make a title run in October include: Oakland Athletics (13/1), Boston Red Sox (13/1), Atlanta Braves(15/1), Los Angeles Angels (18/1) and Toronto Blue Jays (18/1).The odds on the Chicago Cubs ending the franchise’s 98-year World Seriesdrought are listed at 19/1 while the Cleveland Indians are 20/1 to win their first championship since 1948. PinnacleSports.com lists the LosAngeles Dodgers at 21/1 to capture the team’s seventh World Series and the Barry Bonds-led San Francisco Giants are 26/1 to win the championship. While they may enter the season with the same record as every other team,the oddsmakers feel a number of franchises have little to no chance ofwinning the World Series. PinnacleSports.com lists championship odds ofthe Florida Marlins, Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Devil Rays as 200/1 underdogs, while the Kansas City Royals have been installed as the biggestlong shots at 600/1. In addition to offering betting on who’ll win the World Series,PinnacleSports.com also offers odds on each Major League team winningtheir League Pennant as well as their respective Division. Bettors canalso wager on a wide variety of player props and match-ups includingbatting average, home runs, hits, stolen bases, strike outs and savesamong others. Additionally, PinnacleSports.com provides a unique Division“Superfecta”, where players can strike it rich by predicting the correctorder of the top four finishers in any division with odds of up to2,000/1. Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*Odds To Win World Series From PinnacleSports.comNew York Yankees 3/1New York Mets 7/1St. Louis Cardinals 8/1Chicago White Sox 8/1Oakland Athletics 13/1Boston Red Sox 13/1Atlanta Braves 15/1Los Angeles Angels 18/1Toronto Blue Jays 18/1Chicago Cubs 19/1Cleveland Indians 20/1Los Angeles Dodgers 21/1San Francisco Giants 26/1Houston Astros 38/1Texas Rangers 41/1Philadelphia Phillies 44/1Milwaukee Brewers 48/1Minnesota Twins 52/1San Diego Padres 59/1Seattle Mariners 86/1Cincinnati Reds 100/1Pittsburgh Pirates 100/1Detroit Tigers 100/1Baltimore Orioles 125/1Washington Nationals 125/1Arizona Diamondbacks 150/1Colorado Rockies 200/1Florida Marlins 200/1Tampa Bay Devil Rays 200/1Kansas City Royals 600/1For a complete list of baseball odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.

Pinnacle to increase Juice and reduce Bet maximun

2006-03-31T09:35:00.000-08:00

Players, I have a bad news from my favoriate on line book Pinnacle Sports.
They are discouraging Sharp plays and changing their policies.
What's with the changes? They are taking bad advise, as far as I'm concerned, on how to increase the bottom line.

I will be withdrawing my account along with recommendation to all team members. I hope your reading this Simon, the reaction will be swift.

This is the Pinnacle news release:
Online Sportsbook Admits Error In Offering Reduced Juice On All Sports WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (April 1, 2006)—Leading online sportsbook PinnacleSports.com today announced that the company will be changing its’ business model by no longer offering reduced juice wagering on sporting events that offers bettors up to 60% better value than other sports books. Following advice from management consultants, Pinnacle will begin offering traditional 20 cent lines on all major sports immediately – a major changefrom the current low margin betting options, but one that will increaseprofits substantially at the player’s expense. “Although we pioneered reduced margin wagering, the recent figuresreported by numerous companies that deal a 20 cent line or higher havemade us realize we’re simply giving our customers too good a deal,” saidSimon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. “This is a dramatic shift in ourbusiness model, but the bottom line is that we will make more money frombettors this way. We believe all our customers who have benefited from ourlow juice offerings will continue to bet with Pinnacle even though they’ll no longer save so much money on every bet they make. Instead, low juice wagering will be replaced by a ‘Pinnacle Pussycats’ swimsuit calendar anda regular column from a former playmate, while our linesmakers will be putto work devising ways of dealing dual lines and moving on aireffectively." In addition to restructuring betting margins, PinnacleSports.com has also decided to reduce betting limits to a maximum limit of $200 per bet. The executive team has also stipulated that Pinnacle Sports will be implementing a no wise-guy and no syndicate policy. With the Final Fourand start of baseball season this weekend, Pinnacle has determined that the best way to proceed in the future is to open betting on sportingevents only an hour or two before the game starts so that the line can be sharpened elsewhere.“We’ve thoroughly examined the marketplace and after meeting with management consultants, we realize it makes sense to not only increase thejuice, but to also decrease wager limits, discourage professional players and only give bettors an hour or two to bet on games before they start,”continued Mr. Noble. “While we opened betting on the Final Four gamesbefore the conclusion of the Florida/Villanova game Sunday, that will be athing of the past, as we hope to follow in the footsteps of thetrendsetters that guarantee to open betting by mid-day before an event.”To kickoff the business restructuring, PinnacleSports.com plans on throwing an extravagant party at a nightclub in Curacao headlined by C and D list celebrities. Additionally, the company is in negotiations to produce a made for TV mini series set to air at 3 a.m. on Saturdays onpublic access television. Pinnacle has also announced its intentions to purchase a fleet of Harley Davidson motorcycles using the company’s increased profits generated at the player’s expense so that Mr. Noble can appear at various events around the country with the ‘Pinnacle Pussycats’. For more information, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com

Happy April Fools day!

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-03-22T14:10:00.000-08:00

I've been short on time, but here is our good friend Simon Noble from Pinnacle giving us some interesting thoughts.
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
With big busts and Georgetown, Bradley, Wichita State and George Mason delivering big upsets, we say good bye to the reigning champs and all representatives from the Big Ten as the mid-majors march on in the NCAA Tournament. As we move into the second week of the tourney with the Sweet 16 delivering a mix of perennial powers and Cinderella stories, I’d like to focus this week’s Pulse on an often overlooked, but potentially highly lucrative area for savvy bettors – second half wagering. One of the most important things in evaluating a second half spread is assessing what happened in the first half of the game and trying to interpret what affect it will have on the remainder of the game. Was one team remarkably cold or on fire in the first half? Are any key players in foul trouble or were there any injuries? Does the pace of the game or the way the referees are calling it favor one team more than another? If you’re looking to find an edge on a second half spread, then a good place to focus your attention are games that are lined to go through zero in the second half. A game can never fall zero and one point victories are the rarest of any of the single digit numbers in college basketball. Oddsmakers and bettors often underestimate the mathematical significance of this. For example, if a team is down by 2 points and is favored to win thesecond half by 3.5 points, there is a good chance that there will be somevalue laying the points. However, if handicapping still leads you to a play on the underdog in this scenario, a wager on the dog on the moneyline would generally be a strong play. As a rule, the equivalent moneyline fora +3.5 (-105) underdog in this situation is around +139. Almost without fail you can expect to find +150 or higher as bettors drive the line up, underestimating the influence of the spread going through the zero. Another area where you can also often find an advantage in College hoopsare second half totals, which can be some of the most interesting wagersout there. Unlike the NBA where the second half total is usually close tothe line on the first half of the game, second half totals in Collegebasketball are on average almost 8 points higher than first half totals for the same game. This is due to the shot clock and its affect on fouling late in the game,which leads to some interesting handicapping scenarios for the total. If ateam is up by a lot at the half and you think they can maintain a big enough lead to avoid late fouling situations, the under can be a strong play. In addition, the chance of an under ruining overtime would also belessened. Another mathematical angle to consider with these 8 point differentials isthat they aren't constant across all games. Match-ups that have a highergame total (above 145 for the full forty minutes) will have on averageless than 8 extra points scored in the second half. Interestingly match-ups with a total below 130 for the full game will generally have more than 8 extra points scored on average during the second half. It all seems counterintuitive, but will hopefully help lead you to a better mathematical line than the market bears. These are all factors to consider as well as ensuring that you always playat the best price available. As regular readers of this column will know,this is one of the easiest ways for any player to increase their potentialwinnings. Pinnacle Sports Book uses -105 style pricing on second half sides and totals which offers bettors up to 50% better value than other bookies. At Pinnacle Sports betting you can even move the second half lines in your favor on all NBA and NCAA tournament games using our unique second half alternates. This is where we set up alternate lines for the second half where the spread is adjusted by a further 5 to 9 points depending on the closeness of the game. While you consider these insider tips for wagering on the second half, you may want to consider how the players been betting the games themselves. LSU (+6 -105) vs. Duke Before the tourney, Duke’s inexperience was highlighted as its biggest weakness, but it was the Blue Devils freshmen that powered the team to a74-61 victory over George Washington in the second round with a 1-2 Redick, Williams punch. Despite being unable to cover in its second round victory over Texas A&M, Louisiana State’s ability to weather a defensive struggle should serve the Tigers well against Duke. LSU’s big men will be looking to shut down the Blue Devils forwards in similar fashion as they limited the Aggies second-leading scorer and top rebounder Joseph Jones to just six pointsand four boards at the weekend. Duke opened as a 5.5 point favorite and speculators quickly pushed theline up to 6.5. Sharp money came in buying to 7 which prevented the linefrom going higher. One syndicate quickly pushed the line out from 6.5 to7.5 but this move was quickly rejected by the market and the line was driven back to 6. We expect to receive public money on Duke for the rest of the way until tip off with the sharps firing on LSU and probably overpowering the public money. We think the game is a toss up that couldeasily see LSU winning outright.
Gonzaga (+3.5 -108) vs. UCLA The Zags proved they're much more than a one-man show Saturday in the second round of the tournament, defeating Indiana 90-80 even though AdamMorrison earned just 14 points on 5-of-17 shooting. With five otherplayers booking double digits, Gonzaga didn’t need the Player of the Year frontrunner, but they’ll need him from here on out. No. 2 seed UCLA’stough defense doesn’t give up cheap points and they will be trying to get back to the Final Four for the first time since their 1995 national championship. We opened UCLA as a 4 point favorite and received immediate two way actionat this number. Following a move by sharp money, the number was pushed down to 3 where the majority of the money seems to be coming in on UCLA. We anticipate that the line is likely to stay around 3.5 where we are now seeing sharp action on both sides in a heavy volume game.
George Mason (-2 -107) vs. Wichita State The upstart Patriots knocked the defending National Champions and third-seeded Tar Heels out of the tournament with a 65-60 upset victory to set up this mid-major match-up in the Sweet Sixteen. Wichita State, theteam who beat the Southeastern Conference's East division champions, already knew how good George Mason was. Before the Patriots knocked off two of last year’s Final Four teams in the opening rounds, they beat the Shockers 70-67 last month as a 3.5 point underdog at Wichita State. We opened the game with George Mason as a 1 point favorite and the linewas bet down to a pick’em. Since then we have seen steady sharp money onthe Patriots pushing the line back to -2 -107, as bettors expect George Mason playing close to home to overcome the Wichita State Shockers.

Great stuff from Simon. I like LSU plus much points as you can get and Geroge Mason Money line smells like winner too.

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-03-13T15:18:00.000-08:00

“MARCH MADNESS” BETTING ONLINE WILL DWARF THE SUPER BOWL“PinnacleSports.com Executive Available To Discuss “March Madness” BettingTrendsWILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (March 13, 2006)—With office pools and online bettinggaining in popularity and acceptance each year, “March Madness” hassurpassed even the Super Bowl as the most widely bet annual sporting eventin North America. Of the estimated $3.5 to $4 billion wagered on lastyear’s NCAA tournament worldwide, industry experts predicted at least onethird of that total was bet online. The largest sports betting site on theInternet, PinnacleSports.com expects betting on the NCAA tournament todwarf that of this year’s Super Bowl and is available to discuss a widerange of betting trends on the tournament.While the 182 sports books in Nevada are expected to take approximately$90 million in “March Madness” bets, estimates indicate that onlinebookmakers as a whole will record nearly $1.3 billion in NCAA tournamentwagers. Even more impressive is that the $1.3 billion represents more thandoubles the estimated $600 million wagered online on this year’s SuperBowl. With the highest online limits and odds that offer consistent valueto the player, PinnacleSports.com is recognized by both gaming experts andits peers as being the leading online sports book in the world. For thisyear’s tournament, PinnacleSports.com will accept online wagers from aslittle as $1 to a maximum of $30,000 with low margin wagering that givesbettors up to 50% better value than traditional bookmakers online or inNevada.“While buzzer beaters and upsets grab the headlines, what reallycaptivates millions is their vested interest in office pools rather thanthe performance of their favorite team or alma mater,” said Simon Noble ofPinnacleSports.com. “For every person that enters an office pool, there’sa good chance you will find another placing a bet on the tournament gamesover the Internet. As more consumers realize the safety and convenienceonline sportsbooks provide, the Internet will continue to be thedestination of choice for betting on major sporting events like the NCAAtournament.”Since founding the first Internet sportsbook in 1996, Mr. Noble haswitnessed the explosive growth of online gambling firsthand. He isavailable to discuss several betting-related issues, including:· Gambling trends and facts regarding the NCAA Tournament· The growth of Internet sports betting· Online versus traditional sports gambling· Government regulation of Internet gaming· The setting of “March Madness” betting lines· Patterns and trends in the bets placed so far· Unique NCAA Tournament-related betting options available atPinnacleSports.comPinnacleSports.com was the first sportsbook to release betting lines onthis year’s NCAA tournament games, posting point spreads as the firstround match-ups were announced Sunday night. The company will offerthousands of wagering options on the tournament including playerpropositions, futures and live in-game betting. For more information and acomplete list of NCAA Tournament betting odds, please visitwww.pinnaclesports.com.About PinnacleSports.comPinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largestsports betting site serving customers in more than 80 countries worldwide.Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introducereduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors upto 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With lowminimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web,PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providingconsistent value to the player, professional customer service and thequickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, thecompany offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casinogaming.

Sopranos

2006-03-09T11:58:00.000-08:00

BETTORS FAVOR UNCLE JUNIOR & CHRISTOPHER TO BE FIRSTSOPRANOS CHARACTER TO BE “WHACKED” IN SEASON SIXWILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (March 8, 2006)—With “The Sopranos” returning totelevision after a 21-month hiatus Sunday night, the biggest question onthe minds of the show’s loyal fans is which character will be the next toget “whacked”. Last week PinnacleSports.com became the first sportsbook tolet fans bet on who’ll be the first of 18 regular Sopranos characterskilled-off in the upcoming season of the hit mob drama. After nearly oneweek of wagering, Uncle Junior and Christopher have emerged as firmfavorites with online bettors to be the first character to be ‘clipped’ orpass away during “The Sopranos” sixth season.Of the 18 regular Sopranos characters PinnacleSports.com created odds onbeing the first to be killed-off this season, Uncle Junior and Christopherhave each received 13 percent of all money wagered, the most of anycharacters. PinnacleSports.com now lists Uncle Junior as the favorite tobe the first character rubbed-out at 11/2 odds (i.e., win $11 for every$21 bet). Tony Soprano’s nephew Christopher, now has the second-best oddsto meet his demise at 6/1, while early betting favorite and Soprano family soldier, Vito Spatafore remains a solid contender for early termination at 25/4. New Jersey crew members Patsy Parisi (7/1) and Eugene Pontecorvo(15/2) have also received support from bettors and remain prime candidatesto be the first bumped-off. A surprising move has seen the odds on Tony’ssister Janice becoming the first casualty of season six, dropping her oddsfrom 29/1 all the way to 11/1. Bettors have also backed acting New Yorkboss Phil Leotardo reducing his odds from 17/1 at opening to currentlystanding at 11/1 after receiving nine percent of the money bet to date.“In the past our bettors have correctly predicted the outcome of television shows like American Idol as well as world events including thePapal conclave and Presidential elections,” said Simon Noble ofPinnacleSports.com. “If the betting trend continues, it could mean the endof the line for Uncle Junior or Christopher, who both have several risk factors making them vulnerable to being killed-off. ”After receiving tepid support from bettors, PinnacleSports.com now lists Bobby Bacala (11/1), Benny Fazio (11/1), Paulie Walnuts (13/1) and ArtieBucco (16/1) as larger underdogs to get whacked first or pass away when wagering opened. Although he’s serving time in jail while awaiting his RICO trial, the odds on Johnny Sack being taken-out first have dropped to 30/1. The futures of Silvio Dante (52/1) and Dr. Melfi (70/1) appear safefor the time being as neither has received much backing to get killed-off.The TV drama’s first family is also likely to survive this season’s firstdeath as A.J. (70/1), Carmela (70/1), Meadow (75/1) and Tony (75/1) remainthe biggest long shots. Not all fans believe a “hit” is imminent in the sixth season, as bettinghas dropped the odds on none of the listed recurring characters being killed-off to 7/1. For additional information and a complete list ofupdated odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com.Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*
First Character To Be Killed/Die On The Sopranos Character Current Odds Opening Odds
Uncle Junior 11/2 - 7/1
Christopher Moltisanti 6/1 - 8/1
Vito Spatafore 25/4 - 6/1
Patsy Parisi 7/1 - 9/1
Eugene Pontecorvo 15/2 - 10/1
Phil Leotardo 11/1 - 17/1
Janice Soprano 11/1 - 29/1
Bobby Bacala 11/1 - 9/1
Benny Fazio 11/1 - 10/1
Paulie Walnuts 13/1 - 12/1
Artie Bucco 16/1 - 14/1
Johnny Sack 30/1 - 44/1
Silvio Dante 52/1 - 29/1
Dr. Melfi 70/1 - 44/1
A.J. Soprano 70/1 - 90/1
Carmela Soprano 70/1 - 90/1
Meadow Soprano 75/1 - 90/1
Tony Soprano 75/1 - 90/1
None of these die 7/1 - 20/1

About PinnacleSports.comPinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largestsports betting site serving customers in more than 80 countries worldwide.Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introducereduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors upto 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With lowminimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web,PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providingconsistent value to the player, professional customer service and thequickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao and theUnited Kingdom, the company offers a secure environment for sportsbetting, racing and casino gaming.

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-01-18T10:38:00.000-08:00

The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon NobleOfficiating can be a factor that makes handicapping games that much moredifficult and last weekend witnessed some of the most questionable NFLofficiating ever seen. No matter how much time you spend analyzing amatch-up, a judgment call can be the ultimate decider of who wins and wholoses. Losing bettors and fans remember these calls for a very long time…The officiating last weekend was so bad that the NFL admitted making amistake when Troy Polamalu’s diving interception in the fourth quarter wasoverturned. Fortunately, that mistake had no effect on the overall outcomeof the game. However, for those players that bet on the second half, itwas a different story.Pittsburgh backers took the Steelers +7.5 for the second half. After theinterception reversal, the Colts scored a TD followed by a 2-pointconversion on the drive. Without that score, Indianapolis -7.5 would nothave covered and Steelers bettors would have won the money.Earlier in the same game, the Steelers were facing fourth and inches whentwo Colts charged across the line of scrimmage and pointed at a Steelerlineman. Play was halted and no penalty called although there should havebeen a call for either a false-start or off-sides.The New England-Denver game also had a number of questionable callsappearing to favor the home team. In the first quarter, Patriotscornerback Asante Samuel was called for pass interference, advancing theBroncos 39 yards to the 1-yard line for an eventual score. Replay showedthat Samuel had position and made very little contact with Denver receiverAshley Lelie on the play.Later in the game, Denver’s Champ Bailey intercepted a pass in theend-zone and nearly returned it for a touchdown before he was hit andfumbled out of bounds. The officials ruled it remained Denver’s ballalthough it appeared that the ball went out of bounds in the end-zone, andNew England should have regained possession at their own 20 yard-line viaa touchback.Let’s hope things are better this weekend as there are now just three morecompetitive games before the curtain comes down on the NFL this season.Although these are clearly the biggest games of the year, it’s wise tostay focused on your money management. There’s always a temptation to betmore, but these games should be treated no differently than any other froma handicapper’s perspective.Resist the temptation to bet more on a side or total simply because theseason is coming to an end. It’s all about winning and you couldpotentially find more value to justify a stronger play on Sunday’sNiagara-St. Peter’s NCAA match-up for instance, than betting the house onthe AFC Championship game.If you find props or other bets you like, spread your money out as younormally would, but don’t throw it all on one side bet. Too many factors(or even referee calls) can go wrong in one game to justify overextendingyourself.Before making your plays this weekend, remember that there’s a limitedtime between the AFC and NFC Championship games to get your bets in -typically, just 15 minutes or less. With all the viewers of the AFC titlegame running to their computers to get action on the Panthers-Seahawksgame, there is an annual 15-minute period that’s traditionally the mostintense time of the year for online sports books.From past experience, many sports books will unfortunately not be able tohandle the stress this puts on their Web servers and database. Websitesmay be slow or worse still, they might be down altogether as their serversbuckle under the load. If you want to get action on the NFC title game ata sports book other than Pinnacle Sports, consider making your plays wellbefore the Pittsburgh-Denver game ends.If you fail to get your bets in before the game kicks off in Seattle, youstill have another option - live betting at Pinnacle Sports. The PinnacleSports book is known for outstanding value on sides and totals, and ourlive lines are no different. For in-running betting throughout the game,we use a -108 style pricing model, which still offers better value thanthe normal price offered by other sportsbooks before the game kicks off.If you like to get your plays in early, you can benefit even more fromPinnacle Sportsbook’s reduced margin wagering, which uses a -104 pricingmodel that gives bettors up to 60% better value on NFL sides than otherbookmakers. If you haven’t placed your wagers yet, you might want toconsider who the sharps and public like this weekend:Pittsburgh (+3 +106) at Denver O/U 41The Steelers have impressed, winning two straight playoff road games overthe Bengals and the Colts. Pittsburgh has made it this far by utilizing astrategy similar to Denver’s – running the ball and defending the runfirst.Denver and Pittsburgh had the second and fifth-ranked rushing attacksrespectively in the NFL and on run-defense, they ranked #2 and #3.Featuring the run has helped both teams reduce turnovers as sacks andturnovers happen with far more frequency when teams are forced to pass. Byfocusing on the run and rush defense, both teams have avoidedinterceptions and get more opportunities to pressure opposing teams’quarterbacks.We’ve seen heavy volume on this game after opening the spread with theSteelers at +3 (-116). The public clearly favors the Steelers, placingfive bets on Pittsburgh for every two on the Broncos. The sharps arebetting this game also, but they’re split on the game.After opening the total at 42.5 we have seen a classic, sharp versuspublic duel. The sharps are mostly on the under, while a majority of thebets placed have been on the over. As is often the case, the wise guyshave been placing bigger wagers and despite the larger bet count on theover from the public, sharp action has forced the total down to 41.Carolina (+3.5 -102) at Seattle O/U 43.5Carolina and Pittsburgh are both attempting to become the first team towin three consecutive road playoff games since the playoff format changedin 1990. Only two wildcard teams have even won 2 consecutive gamespreviously – Indy in 1995-96 and Jacksonville in 1996-97. If the lines areany indication though, Sunday might be the “day of the dog” – as 3 and 3.5point underdogs, the market strongly suggests that one of these teamscould win outright.We initially opened the Panthers as 6-point dogs in the NFC title game.The early money quickly pushed this down to +3.5 and we’re still takingmore bets on Carolina by a ratio of 2:1. Some of our sharps took thePanthers at +6 but there’s no clear consensus between the wise guys at+3.5.We opened the total at 43 and the public and sharps are again fightingover the number. At 43 we took twice as many bets on the over as on theunder. The market as a whole has crept up, even though the sharps weremainly taking the under. On high profile games like this the public tendsto line up on the over and the sharps will often take a contrarianposition.Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, andonline poker.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines andrebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now withPinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-01-13T08:31:00.000-08:00

The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon NobleFour years ago, the offshore betting world was rocked by the failure of Aces Gold. While many players were surprised, most professionals and other gaming companies weren’t – any sportsbook that books irresponsibly, offers“unique numbers” or unreasonable bonuses is always at risk of going under. Although the industry has matured and companies with deep pockets like Pinnacle Sports continue to pull away from the pack, as the end of the NFLseason approaches you should ask yourself an important question: How safeis my money? The sad reality that some players risk being slow paid or not paid at allhas still not been completely eliminated from the offshore industry. For those of us that have followed offshore gaming since the beginning, the only surprising thing about the recent failure of Rich Coast Sports is that it happened during the regular season. The fact is that there is a greater risk of failing sports books going out of business in the two weeks after the Super Bowl than during any other period. This has been a rough year for some sports books. Many that are publicly-traded have already issued profit warnings to the markets citing:“the NFL sports betting margins in the US have been adversely affected recently as a result of a large number of favourites winning” or “adversely affected by a run of poor trading results on professional American Football”. Books that cater to recreational players were hit particularly hard, since the favorites covered at a 58% clip this season. Given many books have chased the traditional “dog and under” sharp players to routinely take positions on sides against the public, it has left them exposed to this run of results. The possibility that your money could disappear when a sports book goes under is a frightening thought. However, with just a little planning, youcan greatly mitigate the risk and ease your mind. Start by making an inventory of the sports books you use then ask yourself: Which of these has ANY chance of going under? Questions to ask yourself when evaluating these companies, include: Howl ong have they been in business? Are they offering uncharacteristicallyl arge reload or sign-up bonuses? Perhaps they offer an increasing number of no juice games or free half points? Are they putting out “uniquenumbers” (a sure sign that they are gambling and not booking the games)?What are the forums and gambling press saying? The safest bet is to simply avoid playing at any place you fear losingyour money. If you choose to play at an unsafe book, keep your balance as low as possible – only enough to make bets you know you will make. After the Conference Championships are concluded on January 22, there are two weeks before the Super Bowl. How much do you need at each book? You want enough money to bet on the game and perhaps on props as well. If you have already made your Super Bowl bets or aren’t making any bets at a certain book, withdraw your money. Most books in trouble will try making payouts in the weeks before the Super Bowl as they are still collecting deposits and don’t want to do anything to prevent those from drying up. If you wait until after the Super Bowl, your odds of collecting from a failing sports book drops drastically. There’s another reason to keep less money at individual sportsbooks and that’s all thanks to payment processors like NETeller. Your money atNETeller is flexible since you can have it credited at most gamingcompanies almost instantaneously. At Pinnacle Sports, NETeller payouts are made seven days a week and the money is usually in your account within a matter of minutes. If your sports book cannot offer this same level ofservice, it may be another sign to lower your balance to avoid disappointment. While you’ll want to keep a healthy balance at books you play at regularly, lesser-played books are best kept with balances sufficient for only a few bets. If you see an opportunity, you can always re-deposit. It’s one thing to make a conscious decision to risk money at a weak bookwith a balance you can afford to lose. It’s quite another to get blind-sided when your withdrawal request is denied and the sportsbook’s website disappears. Spend 20 minutes to ensure your accounts are in order, and you won’t have to worry on Monday, February 6. You can however rest assured that your money is safe at Pinnacle Sports.Established in 1998, our low margin wagering offers players up to 60%better value on NFL sides than other books. This means we are ahigh-volume, low-margin shop that always tries to balance action on games.With low minimums and the highest limits online, we attract both novicesnew to sports betting and seasoned pros alike.Whether it’s the Monday after the Super Bowl or any other time, you’llalways receive lightning-fast NETeller payouts at Pinnacle Sports. If youdon’t believe me, try us at www.pinnaclesports.com We still have playoff games before the Super Bowl. Which teams do the wiseguys like? Read below…Washington (+9) at SeattleThe Redskins’ offense was flat last week. They won, but managed only 136yards of total offense. Washington forced three turnovers, including a51-yard fumble return for a touchdown. The Bucs had over twice as many yards, but were one for three in the red-zone. Everything that could go wrong for Tampa Bay did, although the Redskins still looked lackluster. Washington will need a perfect game to beat the Seahawks, which boast the top scoring offense in the NFL at 28.2 points per game. Our opener of Redskins +9 (-113) saw heavy two-way action. Washington isclearly the public team, with twice as many wagers on them as on Seattle. Overall, the larger bets have been on the Redskins, but we are still relatively flat on the game. The sharps are split on this one and have played both sides, with some buying Washington to +10 and others Seattleto -7.5.New England (+3) at DenverTom Brady is now 10-0 as a starter in playoff games for the Patriots. In addition to his playoff streak, the Patriots won the final four regularseason games that he started and played the entire game (many Patriotstarters were rested against Miami in week 17). The Broncos are coming offa bye week and could benefit from the return of cornerback DarrentWilliams. How much does that bye week matter? Since 1990, home teams off abye week in the playoffs are an impressive 40-10.We opened with the Patriots at +3 (-112). Once again, the public likes theunderdog by a 2:1 margin and the wise guys are split. There has been a moderate amount of point-buying, which makes a 3-point Denver win a badresult for us. Pittsburgh (+9.5) at Indianapolis Despite being the only team in the AFC to make the playoffs six times in the last seven years, the playoffs have been a general nightmare for the Colts. In the last seven years, they are 2-3 in Wildcard games and 1-3 inDivisional/Championship games. This Indy team has something those past Colts teams didn’t – the #1 defense in the AFC, allowing just 15.4 pointsper game. This game opened with Pittsburgh at +10 (-111) and saw light volume. A few of our winning players took the Steelers early at +10, but the sharps have mainly avoided this match-up. We have taken slightly more Steelers actionthat has caused this line to drift down to +9.5. Carolina (+2.5) at Chicago This game features the #1 and #2 defenses in the NFC. Chicago allows only 12.6 points per game, while Carolina gives up 15.2. The last time these two teams played, the Bears recorded eight sacks on Jake Delhomme en routeto a 16-3 win.From a bookmaking perspective, this game is almost a mirror of the NewEngland-Denver game. We opened with Panthers at +3 -111 and took heavytwo-way action. The wise guys were playing both sides buying off of the“3”, setting up another reverse-middle situation for us. The line on thegame has now settled at Carolina +2.5 (+105).
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, andonline poker.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines andrebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now withPinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Odds on Reggie Bush"s NFL Rookie Campaign

2006-01-06T10:22:00.000-08:00

ODDS ON REGGIE BUSH’S NFL ROOKIE CAMPAIGN AT PINNACLESPORTS.COM
Heisman Winner Favored To Rush For 1,000 Yards & Win NFL Offensive RookieAward
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (January 6, 2006)—Now that he just finished playing in one of the greatest national championship games in NCAA history, it’s only a matter of time before Heisman winner Reggie Bush officially declares forthe 2006 NFL Draft. Drawing comparisons to NFL greats like Gayle Sayersand Barry Sanders, the experts believe Bush is the unquestioned top pickin April’s draft if he leaves college following his junior season.Anticipating that Reggie Bush is certain to enter this year’s NFL draft,leading online sportsbook PinnacleSports.com today opened betting on howthe Heisman-winning running back will perform during his rookie season.The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com hascreated a number of betting lines on Reggie Bush’s rookie campaignincluding if he‘ll rush for 1,000 yards, win Offensive Rookie of the Yearhonors and make the NFL Pro Bowl. Believing that he’ll instantly becomethe feature back for the team that selects him, the odds makers atPinnacleSports.com have made Bush a 10/13 favorite to run for 1,000 yardsor more in his rookie year. The odds that his rookie season will result inBush capturing the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award are also inthe running back’s favor at 5/9. Although everyone expects Reggie Bush tohave a very successful NFL debut, the likelihood that he’ll be named tothe NFL Pro Bowl in his first season is a 2/1 underdog. PinnacleSports.comhas even calculated odds on Bush doing his best LaDainian Tomlinson impersonation by throwing a touchdown pass, which currently stands as a 7/2 long shot.
“The opportunity to be the first overall pick in the NFL draft comes a long
once in a lifetime, and with two national championships and a Heisman
already on his resume, there’s no real reason why Reggie Bush shouldn’t
declare for the NFL draft,” said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. “With comparisons to Hall of Fame running backs, there’s little doubt that
Reggie Bush will make an immediate impact in the NFL and should be ashoe-in for 1,000 yards rushing and the Offensive Rookie of the Year if heremains healthy.”Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*Will Reggie Bush Rush For 1,000 Yards As An NFL Rookie?
Yes 10/13No 11/10
Will Reggie Bush Win Offensive Rookie Of The Year?
Yes 5/9No 8/5
Will Reggie Bush Make The Pro Bowl As A Rookie?
No 1/2Yes 2/1
Will Reggie Bush Throw A TD Pass As A Rookie?
No 1/4Yes 7/2
For additional information and a complete list of odds,
please visitwww.pinnaclesports.com.

Pinnacle Pulse

2006-01-04T17:16:00.000-08:00

The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon NobleIn the early years of sports betting, public money was the dominantfactor. The influence of public money was so great that the lines wereoften over inflated to force some control over the positions a sportsbookwould take on a game. The squares forced certain patterns every week –take the favorite and over early, and the dog and under right before post.These patterns were even more pronounced for Monday night games and theplayoffs.Things gradually changed. The number of wise guys kept growing, syndicatesformed and these winning players bet more and more. A few years ago, westarted seeing games where the sharps bet a lot more money than thepublic. The old trends started getting bucked – a Monday night dog wouldnot keep going up, as the sharps forced the price back down. The influenceof sharps became more prominant, and this has changed the way the entireoffshore world works.There’s still two distinct pools of money, but the hierarchy has changed.The public still bets growing amounts on games and exotics, but they’re nolonger the dominant force controlling the line. Runaway lines during theregular season are now a thing of the past – the influence of public moneyis now dwarfed by the ‘sharper’ betting volume of the establishedsyndicates and emerging sharps. The dramatic 1 or 1.5 point moves in thehour before the game are a thing of the past.But then there is the post season where everything can change and theinfluence of public money is hard for a sports book to ignore…Smart players can still exploit the line movements caused by sharp andpublic money during the post season by recognizing who plays where. First,you can get a measure of which side is sharp by watching the way theopening betting line surges at Pinnacle Sports, where the early line movesare predominantly caused by sharp players. Second, it’s important to shoparound and identify which books will give you the best prices for yourplaying style.You should always have a variety of sharp and recreational books so youcan get the best price on the side you like. If you prefer the traditionalsharp angles of playing dogs and unders, you’d do well to shop at a bookthat caters to recreational players. Their lines are a full point betterthan those of a typical “sharp” book. Similarly, the sharp books willoften offer the best price on favorites and overs.It’s also important to have at least one account at a reduced juice sportsbook where you can often find best price on both sides of the game. Forexample take PinnacleSports.com which was the first sports book tointroduce reduced margin wagering. At Pinnacle Sports Book we use a -104style pricing model on NFL sides giving players up to 60% better valuethan other bookmakers.For this weekend’s playoff games, you might want to take a closer look atteasers before pulling the trigger, as these can be treacherous during thefirst week of the playoffs. For the last 15 years, the average margin ofvictory in the regular season has been 11.4 points. One would think thatthe playoffs would be closer, since the wildcard round has relativeparity, but this isn’t the case. Instead of having closer games, theaverage margin of victory goes UP to 13.2 (and stays above 13.2 for allrounds of the playoffs and the Super Bowl). When the margin of victorygoes up, points you get from a teaser become less valuable.There is another surprising trend in this world of relative parity – homefield advantage during the playoffs. Since 1990, home teams have coveredthe spread 58% of the time in the first round and 76% of the time whenteased. As you may recall from earlier Pulse articles, you need to add atleast 20% to your win-rate to make playing a teaser worthwhile.For this weekend’s wildcard games, consider this information and how toplay or tease them.Washington (+2.5) at Tampa BayWashington finished the season with five straight wins to snatch awildcard in the NFC. They did this with a balanced offense and defensethat, while neither was dominant, both were above average. Tampa Bay wonits division by winning four of its last five games. The Bucs did it withthe #1 defense in the NFL allowing just 278 yards per game. Their offensewas conservative, which relied on a low-risk running attack to eat up timeand shorten games.We initially opened the Redskins at +3 -121 and saw heavy two-way action.The sharps are divided on this game, but seem to slightly favor theRedskins. The public also favors Washington, which caused this line tonudge down. We’re also taking moderate volume on Washington teasers, butthis is not from our sharper players.Jacksonville (+8) at New EnglandAfter starting at 4-4, New England won four of its last five games toclinch its division. They did this despite being the only playoff teamwith a negative turnover differential (at -6 for the season). Jacksonvillefinished at 12-4, 2 games better than the Patriots, but thanks to sharinga division with the 14-2 Colts, the Jaguars could only win a wildcard, andare on the road.After opening at Jacksonville +7.5, we saw heavy balanced two-way action.The sharps are split on this game as well, taking the points or playingthe Patriots bought down to -6.5 and -7. Some sharps are also playingteasers on the Patriots from -8 to -2. By moving the line to New England-8 +101, we are dealing about the same price as -7.5 -104, but it makesteasing less attractive.Carolina (+2.5) at New York GiantsAfter having the inside track to the NFC South title, Carolina lost twohome games in December and yielded the title to Tampa Bay. Consequently,the Panthers begin their playoff journey on the road in New York. TheGiants managed to win four of their last five games, but Eli Manning hashad difficulties. In December, he’s thrown 7 interceptions to just 4touchdowns and his passer rating was an abysmal 64.9%. Tiki Barber hasstepped up for the offense in that same time period, netting 742 yards inthose 5 games.This is our highest volume game of the week. After opening with Panthers+3 -120, the sharps drove the line to +2.5. This is a classic money duelbetween the sharps on Carolina, offset by public money on the Giants.Money continues to pour in on both sides, with the sharps matching thepublic bettors dollar for dollar.Pittsburgh (-3) at CincinnatiIt is rare that a home team is an underdog in the first week of theplayoffs. In the last 10 years, it has only happened 5 times. How have thehome dogs fared? 5-0 against the spread, and 5-0 straight up.Our opener of Steelers -2.5 -113 saw heavy two-way action. Once again, thesharps were split evenly on this game, taking Pittsburgh at -2.5 andCincinnati at +3. The public is also evenly split, but slightly favors theSteelers.Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, andonline poker.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines andrebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now withPinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Pinnacle Pulse

2005-12-22T12:30:00.000-08:00

The Pinnacle PulseThe Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon NobleOn behalf of Pinnacle Sports, I’d like to wish everyone Happy Holidays!With all the festivities it might seem like a natural time for a break,but taking the holidays off completely might mean missing some greatfootball betting opportunities. While college football can be profitable,betting on NCAA Bowl Games can be even more lucrative, but there are a fewextra factors to consider at this time of the year.One of the most significant changes to bowl season play occurs due togrades as players become academically ineligible. Several teams will loseone or more players due to academic problems. Players are occasionallysuspended for rules violations as well and these suspensions occur withhigher frequency over a Thanksgiving or Christmas break. Significantsuspensions will be listed on Don Best and the Pinnacle Sports bettingline will usually adjust after Don Best makes an announcement.One way to get an edge is to research the teams yourself and find theinformation before Don Best makes an announcement. Local newspapers oftenannounce suspensions days before it gets picked up by the public orreleased by an injury announcement service. With an increasing number ofuniversities putting their student-run newspapers online, another goodsource is a college’s own newspaper. Together with injury information, youcan adjust both your analysis of a game or make a “quick hit” on a scalpor middle.If you stumble across a key injury or a situation where many players aresuspended, you can count on the line moving substantially. Whether or notyou have an opinion on a game, fade the team with suspensions. Once thepublic is informed of a suspension (and the line reacts accordingly) youcan take back the other side for a middle.At PinnacleSports.com there’s also the option to sell several half-pointsand play a scalp. For example, assume you were studying a theoretical TeamRed vs. Team Blue game. Local news showed that two of Team Red’s startingcornerbacks were placed on academic probation. You immediately play TeamBlue -3 -104. After the news on the cornerbacks is disseminated and thepublic is given time to react, the line drifts up to Team Blue -4.5 -109.You could either play the middle, or take Team Red +3 +109 by sellingthree half-points to make a guaranteed profit!Another area you can exploit during Bowl Season is the public’s propensityto overreact to weather. If the weather report calls for snow or rain,public bettors will consistently play the under. If there is a bona fidehurricane or blizzard that will hit the game, the public are right to playthe under. However if there’s only light rain or snow expected to fallbefore or during the game, this will not have the impact that underbettors are paying for. Unless weather conditions are truly horrendous,the right play is to fade the public on any total that moves 3 or morepoints due to weather.An additional piece of information that is both fascinating and dangerousis how large underdogs have performed in Bowl games. Double-digitunderdogs in Bowl games have hit at almost a 60% clip for many years. Froma psychological angle, the underdog is in a prime position – it hasnothing to lose and everything to gain. After having a month to prepare,both teams have time to adapt their game plans extensively which usuallymakes for a closer game than many expect. So why is this knowledgedangerous for the bettor? Like any trend, the market correctsinaccuracies. More and more players blindly play the large dogs and thesebettors will continue to do so until the betting market corrects itself.Consider these factors when you look at the line movements on these games:California (-7.5) vs. BYU (Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl)These two teams are headed in opposite directions. California started hotat 5-0 but then dropped 4 of its last 6 games to finish at 7-4 as theGolden Bears’ passing game has struggled under QB Joseph Ayoob. Afterlimping to a 1-3 start, BYU turned it around and won 5 of its last 7. TheCougars’ first-year coach Bronco Mendenhall has built an offense around QBJohn Beck, who had 3,357 passing yards and a passer rating of 138.1.Our opener of Cal -7 -105 was ignored by the sharps. The public likesCalifornia, with 80% of the bettors backing the Golden Bears. Public moneyhas forced the line to creep up to Cal -7.5 -105. Sad though it is, thisis our highest-volume NCAA Bowl game so far this week.Navy (-2.5) vs. Colorado St. (San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl)Navy enters this game with the nation’s #1 rushing offense, averaging305.9 yards per game. Colorado St., on the other hand, allows over 200rushing yards per game. Despite the amount of rushing, Navy games tend tobe high scoring averaging 55 points per game. The Rams offense is just theopposite – it relies on a pass-heavy attack led by QB Justin Holland. In2005 he completed over 62% of his passes for 2,804 yards, and had a 143passer rating.When comparing stats between teams, you should be acutely aware of thestrength of schedule for each team. According to Sagarin ratings, ColoradoState’s strength of schedule was the 58th most difficult among Div I-Aschools, compared to Navy’s rating of 102nd. This strongly suggests oneshould adjust Navy’s stats downward when analyzing this game.We occasionally have a “sharp vs. public” game and this is one of them.The wise guys are solidly on Colorado St. The public is favoring theMidshipmen by a 3:1 ratio. Despite the public backing, we are relativelyflat due to the larger average bet-size of the sharps.NY Giants (+3) at WashingtonBehind Tiki Barber’s 220 yards rushing last weekend, the Giants knockedoff the Chiefs 27-17 and closed to within one game of winning itsdivision. Part of the Giants’ success has been a consistent running game,averaging 146 yards/game. The Giants can clinch the division with a winhere, or with a win next weekend at Oakland.Washington has won three straight games and will advance to the playoffsif it wins its last two. Due to its 8-2 NFC record, Washington can alsosecure a wildcard with a win over New York combined with losses by Dallas,Minnesota and Atlanta this week.We opened at Washington -3 -107, and took a few early sharp hits on theRedskins. As the line crept up, we saw sharp opposition on the Giants at+3 +112. Given the price each took, both sharp positions are “correct”. Thus far, this has been our highest volume game of the week. The publicfavors the Giants and we are presently taking twice as many bets on them.Minnesota (+2.5) at BaltimoreAfter winning six of its last seven, Minnesota is in contention for awildcard spot, but they need to win tough games against Baltimore andChicago. Finishing at 9-7 would probably still not be enough; the NFCconference record is the tiebreaker in most cases with 3+ teams tied for awildcard spot. With a current NFC record of 7-4, the Vikings would beselected after Washington (8-2) and Tampa Bay/Carolina (both at 7-3).We initially opened this game at Minnesota -1 -112. The sharps wereunanimous in backing Baltimore even before the Monday night 48-3 blowoutof the Packers. The sharps mostly got their bets in on Baltimore as asmall dog, playing the Ravens down to -1 -114. After the Monday Night gamethe public followed the sharps, driving the price up to Baltimore -2.5-113. We have accepted three bets on Baltimore for every one on Minnesota.Pinnacle Sports Book & Online BettingPinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best oddson sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, andonline poker.With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internetbetting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book bettingrequirements and game wagering needs.The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines andrebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now withPinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!

Pinnacle Pulse

2005-12-07T13:43:00.000-08:00

The Inside Line From PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble
The talk of this NFL season has been how the Indianapolis Colts have
dominated their opponents on their way to an astounding 12-0 start.
Only
the 1972 Dolphins have finished with an unblemished regular season
record
and no team has gone undefeated since the schedule was expanded to 16
regular season games. With this in mind, one has to wonder what the
chances are that Indianapolis will win out its last 4 games.
Next up on the schedule are the Jacksonville Jaguars, the only team to
have a second-half lead against the Colts. In their first meeting,
Jacksonville was up 3-0 before losing 10-3. The moneyline on this game
at
Pinnacle Sports is -316/+296, which suggests that Indy will win this
match-up 74.7% (306/406) of the time.
At 12-0, Indianapolis has already clinched a playoff spot and if they
defeat the Jaguars, the Colts will also secure home field advantage
throughout the playoffs. This adds a new twist to the equation: Will
Coach
Tony Dungy rest his key players? When interviewed, he was unsure. A
quarterback has about a 1 in 16 chance of getting injured if he plays a
full game. For this reason, it’s common for playoff-bound teams in
meaningless games to rest key starters. Despite Dungy’s ambiguous
answers
to questions on resting players, I think he’ll maintain his focus on
winning the Super Bowl.
If they reach 13-0, the Colts would then host the Chargers with home
field
advantage locked up. If this game were played two weeks earlier, the
Colts
would be about an 11-point favorite (-830/+750). In that scenario, Indy
would win about 88.7% of the time. In past seasons, the lines have
adjusted about 6 points for teams in “rest situations”, but the resting
teams have done poorly against the spread. I believe we are therefore
likely to see an 8-point spread adjustment, so resting most starters
would
change the line to Colts -3 (-150/+140), suggesting Indy would win 59%.
Beating San Diego would make Indianapolis 14-0, and they would next
visit
Seattle. The Seahawks have already won their division and would likely
be
playing for home field advantage. If neither team were resting, the
visiting Colts would be about 4-point favorites. Assuming the Colts nap
and the Seahawks don’t also take the afternoon off, the adjusted line
would be Seahawks -4 (-185/+175). In either case, the 4-point favorite
should win about 64% of the time.
Should the Colts be 15-0 heading into the final week of the season,
they
would be heavy favorites at home versus Arizona. Super Bowl aspirations
aside, I’m not sure Coach Dungy could rest his players at home against
a
cakewalk opponent with history on the line. If the Colts played full
strength, this line would be about -18 with a greater home field
advantage
than normal. Resting would still make the Colts a solid 10-point
favorite.
The Colts will win 94% if they don’t rest, or 87% if they do.
In conclusion: if Indy chooses to rest its players, I calculate the
chances of them going 16-0 as:
(0.747) (0.59) (0.36) (0.87) = 13.8%, or -654 (No) / +594 (yes).
However if Indy plays for history, the odds of going 16-0 adjust to:
(.747)(.887)(.64)(.94) = 40%, or -155 (No) / +145 (Yes).
Do you have an opinion on whether Indy will finish 16-0? Have you read
something I’ve missed about Tony Dungy’s willingness to risk injuries
to
Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison while chasing a
perfect
regular season record? Or do you have some other insight? You can bet
your
opinion at PinnacleSports.com as we are now offering odds on the prop:
Will Indy go 16-0?
Yes +146
No -164
We have also seen interesting line movement on Indy’s AFC South
match-up
against the Jags this week as well as on the following games listed
below.
Indianapolis (-7.5) at Jacksonville
With starting Jaguar QB Byron Leftwich out for another few weeks, the
Jags
will once again rely on replacement David Garrard. He led Jacksonville
to
victory against Arizona and Cleveland, but faces a much stiffer test
against the third-ranked defense of the Colts. A win for Jacksonville
locks up a wildcard position, whereas an Indy victory in any of its
last 4
games will secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
We opened the game at Colts -7. Indy is clearly a public team and we
are
taking four times as many bets on them as the Jaguars. The sharps seem
split on this game with some playing Indy at -7 and significantly more
on
Jacksonville at +7.5.
Chicago (+6) at Pittsburgh
The Bears have relied heavily on defense during their current 8-game
win
streak by holding opponents to 8.5 points per game, picking off 10
interceptions with 337 interception-return yards and scoring 3 TDs. Not
surprisingly, quarterback Kyle Orton has been part of a very
conservative,
run-based offense that minimizes mistakes, but only generates 16.8
points
per game.
Pittsburgh also boasts an above-average defense allowing less than 19
points per game. With Roethlisberger starting, the Steeler offense has
been productive with 337 yards per game. Unless the Chicago defense can
score or generate several turnovers, a more balanced Pittsburgh team is
the favorite to prevail.
This has been our highest volume game of the week thus far. We opened
this
game at Chicago +4 and took several early hits from sharps on
Pittsburgh.
The market price has crept up since until it topped off at +5.5 and +6.
At
this price, we are seeing the professional players side with Chicago.
New England (-3) at Buffalo
At 7-5, a New England victory would be enough to clinch the mediocre
AFC
East division (whose other three teams are a combined 11-25). The Bills
at
4-8, can still mathematically win the division by winning out the
season
and there are also a few scenarios where a 7-9 team could still win the
division.
We opened this game at -3 -125. While the public is favoring the
Patriots, there is dissent among the sharps. A majority of the pros are
taking Buffalo +3 +115, while a few are favoring New England -3
whenever
the price drifts to -115 or better.
And now for something completely different…
Miss World Finals
Over 100 of the most beautiful women on earth will gather in Sanya,
China
this Saturday to compete for the title of Miss World 2005. I can only
think that our red blooded odds makers have had way too much time on
their
hands this week, as they have created individual odds on over 40
contestants to win the Miss World title. Believe it or not, we have
seen a
very strong move and sharp money show for Miss Philippines, where our
opener of +2000 was driven down to +500.
We also originally offered Miss Namibia at +1000 to advance to the
finals
of Miss World. Knowledgeable sharps with an eye for the ladies have
also
pounded this number down to -500.

Pinnacle Pulse

2005-11-30T12:21:00.000-08:00

The inside line from PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble

It’s easy to be a Monday morning quarterback, talking about plays you should or shouldn’t have made over the weekend, but it’s a far more daunting task to look ahead to Saturday or Sunday, make selections and consistently pick winners. Pinnacle Sports sharp players do just that.
One of my aims when writing this column has been to help readers find a smarter way to bet at Pinnacle Sports by providing an unprecedented insight into the point spread movement on certain key games each week. The idea is to let readers know well before kick off if it’s the public or pros that are causing the line movement, how big the moves are, and if we expect any further movement before game day.
One of our readers emailed me this week asking how the wise guys were doing on the featured games. Out of interest, I went back through the first twelve editions of The Pinnacle Pulse to see just how “sharp” our sharp plays were. There were 28 games where we identified sharp action on just one side of the game. Out of those 28 selections, the sharps were an impressive 18-9-1.
Now I am not advocating that you bet every game we identify as having sharp action, but sports betting is a business of information and I just wanted you to be aware that this information is available. If you find yourself opposed by the sharps, take a closer look at the game to decide if you should make a smaller play or simply pass altogether. On the other hand, agreement with sharp action might be enough to help you pull the trigger on a game that you thought was a marginal play.
In addition to detailing the sharp action in this column, it is also worth being aware of the “Pinnacle Lean”, which you can view at anytime by comparing our NFL lines against several other books when they post their lines. At Pinnacle Sports we use -104 style pricing on NFL sides, which offers bettors up to 60% better value than other books. If the market has the Colts at -14 -110 while we have it at -14 -111 following a 7 cent move, it’s a strong indication that: a) the Colts are the right side; and b) the market will creep up to -14.5 (or higher).
The best way to exploit this is to do your handicapping homework; you should have your lines set for games you are interested in very early - preferably Sunday evening for the NFL. If your handicapping favors the Colts, play it against the early number. If you’re in opposition to the Pinnacle Lean, wait for the market to move to get the best number possible.
Another way you can use the Pinnacle Lean is with teasers. If you are considering a six point tease on a +2.5 underdog, look at the lean. If the favorite is priced at -2.5 -111 or higher at Pinnacle Sports, you might want to pass or wait to make your play to avoid teasing a dog that closes at +3. If you teased that +2.5 dog to +8.5 and the number closed at +3, this leg of the teaser only hits at a 70% clip whereas 73% is required to break even.
You can also look at the moneyline on favorites to assist in teaser selection. For instance, if you were considering teasing the Chicago Bears this week from -7 to -1 you’ll notice that the moneyline is -300/+270 with our reduced margin wagering. If the moneyline is +260 or higher on the dog as it is here, this suggests that a favorite of -8.5 or less is a solid teaser candidate. If the dog moneyline drifts below +260, you might want to reconsider teasing that favorite.
If you have any questions on this article or on any other gambling topic, feel free to email me at askthebook@pinnaclesports.com and I’ll try to answer as many questions as possible in future columns.
Hopefully I haven’t jinxed myself by highlighting this season’s 66.66% win percentage where sharp action has shown for one side on our featured games, but take a look below to see if you agree with the early line movement.
LSU (-1) at Georgia
LSU has won 10 straight games after dropping its home opener to Tennessee. The key to LSU’s success has been its defense ranked 4th in the nation, which has allowed just 13.5 points per game. Currently ranked 3rd in the BCS standings, if LSU had not lost to Tennessee it would be in the national championship hunt, but a victory in the SEC Championship game will secure a BCS berth for the Tigers.
Georgia is 9-2 and ranked 13th in the country, led by an explosive offense averaging 405.5 yards per game when Shockley starts at QB. Georgia’s two losses were to Florida 14-10 without starter Shockley and 31-30 to Auburn.
We opened this at LSU Pk -115. The sharps played the Tigers early driving the line towards LSU -1.5. The public is definitely favoring the Bulldogs and opposing the sharps. With moderate action, we are fairly flat on this game.
Navy (-6) at Army
The winner of this rivalry wins the Commander In Chief’s trophy since both teams have already defeated Air Force. Navy has the #1 rushing offense in the country, averaging 286.7 rushing yards per game with its triple-option attack. Win or lose, Navy will play Colorado State in the Poinsettia Bowl. Army is riding momentum following four straight victories after starting 0-6. The Black Knights have not won the Commander In Chief trophy since 1996.
This is our highest volume game of the week thus far. We initially opened the game at Navy Pk -110. Early sharps quickly corrected our line within minutes to -3 -131. Money continued to come in on the Midshipmen until the line briefly spiked at Navy -8. We took some large hits from sharps at +8, +7.5 and +7 before the line settled at +6. We dislike games where the line moves this much due to the liability of a 7-point Navy win middling us.
UCLA (+21.5) at USC
UCLA’s QB Drew Olson has quietly racked up amazing stats including 30 TDs and just 3 INTs. Despite being 9-1 behind its potent offense, the Bruins’ defense has allowed over 30 points per game and 219.5 rush yds/game. This glaring weakness will be costly against Heisman candidate Reggie Bush, who averages 8.6 yards per carry. If UCLA cannot slow him down, expect this game to be a high-scoring blowout.
We opened the game at +25 but have seen the price driven down to as low as +20 for public favored UCLA. The sharps took USC at -20 to -21, forcing the line to stabilize around -21.5. We have four times as many wagers on the dog plus the points (which I would call the public side), but we are relatively flat due to the larger bet-size of the Trojan backers.
Houston (+9) at Baltimore
If you were wondering how bad Houston is, simply look at last week’s collapse. Up by 10 points with 34 seconds left in the 4th quarter, the Texans allowed a 43-yard TD pass, a successful onside kick leading to a game-tying field goal, and finally a 56-yard TD pass in overtime. It’s not surprising that Houston’s defense is ranked last for points allowed per game. In contrast, Baltimore’s defense is #7 in the league allowing only 287 yards per game.
Both teams’ offenses have suffered from allowing a large number of sacks – between the two teams, they’ve allowed 82 combined sacks. This, in part, explains why these two teams have the #29 and #31 point-scoring offenses
Opening the Ravens at -7, our early sharps took the favorite at -7 and -7.5 (buying down to 7). Rather than drift in a teaser’s “no-man’s land” of Baltimore -8/Houston +8, we moved to Houston +9 -117. While this price is similar to Houston +8 -108, it protects us on the teasers.

Current Events - Canadian Elections

2005-11-30T12:16:00.000-08:00

Despite No Confidence Vote, Liberals Favored Over Conservatives
WILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (November 30, 2005)-After Monday's vote of
no-confidence brought an end to the 17-month reign of the ruling
Liberal
government, Canadian voters will head to the polls in January to decide
the future governance of the nation. With the sitting government
falling
for the first time since 1979 and possibly ending Paul Martin's hold on
Canadian politics, PinnacleSports.com today announced odds on the
outcome
of the upcoming election for control of the Canadian Parliament.
Despite being the first government to fall on a straight motion of
no-confidence, PinnacleSports.com lists the Liberals as favorites to
win
the most seats in the upcoming election at 2/5 odds. The Liberals have
also been made a 12.5 seat favorite over Stephen Harper's Conservatives
for the total seats won in January's vote. PinnacleSports.com has also
created unique over/under betting lines on the total number of seats
won
by each of the four major political parties. Although they held 133
seats
in Parliament after the last election, PinnacleSports.com believes that
recent government corruption and scandals will not go unpunished by the
electorate and lists the over/under on seats won by the Liberals at
only
120.5. The loss of Liberal MP's means potential gains for the other
political parties and the bookmaker predicts that the Conservatives
(over/under 107.5), Bloc Quebecois (over/under 60.5) and NDP
(over/under
29.5) will all gain seats in the House of Commons.
"After losing the parliamentary majority in June 2004, the public's
confidence in Paul Martin and the Liberal party has continued to wane
and
the no-confidence vote in Parliament seems to reflect widespread public
sentiment," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. "Despite all of the
recent controversy, the polls indicate that the Liberals will gain the
most seats in this historic election, but with little chance of gaining
an
overall majority."
In addition to offering betting on the Parliamentary seats won by the
parties, PinnacleSports.com has also posted odds on some of the key
ridings in the upcoming election. The oddsmakers currently list Liberal
Carolyn Bennett as a 10,000 vote favorite to win re-election in the
riding
of St. Paul's in Toronto over Conservative challenger Peter Kent. In
what
is certain to be one of the most closely watched votes, NDP party
leader
Jack Layton is favored by a mere 3,000 votes over Liberal Deborah Coyne
in
the Toronto-Danforth riding.
PinnacleSports.com will accept wagers on the Canadian Election until
the
vote on January 23, 2006. For more information and a complete list of
odds, please visit www.pinnaclesports.com
<http://www.pinnaclesports.com/> .
Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*
Which Party Will Win More Seats?
Liberals 2/5
Conservatives 12/5
Total Seats Won, Including All Recounts
Liberals -12.5 seats
Conservatives +12.5 seats
Total Seats Won By Liberals
Over 120.5 seats 11/10
Under 120.5 seats 5/6
Total Seats Won By Conservatives
Over 107.5 seats 5/6
Under 107.5 seats 11/10
Total Seats Won By Bloc Quebecois
Over 60.5 seats 1/1
Under 60.5 seats 10/11
Total Seats Won By NDP
Over 29.5 seats 10/11
Under 29.5 seats 1/1
St. Paul, Toronto Riding
Carolyn Bennett -10,000 votes
Peter Kent +10,000 votes
Toronto-Danforth Riding
Jack Layton -3,000 votes
Deborah Coyne +3,000 votes
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet's largest
sports betting site serving customers in more than 80 countries
worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports
book
to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that
gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional
bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum
limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading
reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional
customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and
regulated in Curacao and the United Kingdom, the company offers a
secure
environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

PinnacleSports.com

2005-11-20T22:19:00.000-08:00

Most of the guys I know were slow to embrace Off Shore Books.
They had their locals and Vegas in arms reach.
Putting up one to three dimes per play trust is a hard sell when your Off Shore.
I was one of the early Old School guys to convert, but not before several guys did it first and still kept the account small. That was quite awhile ago, now if anyone asked I'd say start with Pinnacle. I also use Neteller for fund transfer.

If you were to ask me what size bankroll is ideal ? I would ask you how much can you afford to lose? But if your a begginer I recommend $500 to $1000.00 and play $5 to $10 unit. If you're getting little serious $10,000 and play $100 unit.
You want to be a dime player? $100K is the bankroll and ofcourse you should have multiple accounts.

Keep in mind the total number of games to be played in a given sport.
I've found apporximately 30% of these games will provide edge to a player with speculation skills. Good place to hone your skill is to study the Sportbook and one of the best is Pinnacle. If your interested in opening a account your first should be Pinnacle. Look at the juice, Look at the lines, they payout immediately and lines come out early. Bonus is nice, but the meat of the deal is the juice and lines.

Here's some info.
www.PinnacleSports.com
Transaction Information
Deposit Methods:
Bank Wire
Cashiers Check (USD and CAD only)
Credit and Debit Card
Neteller and NETeller InstaCASH
INSTADEBIT (For USD only)
WebMoney (For USD and EURO only)
Moneybookers
Solo/Switch Debit Card (For GBP only)
Visa Electron Debit Card (For GBP only)
Minimum Initial Deposit: $50 or equivalent in other currencies.
Maximum Deposit: $5,000 per 30 day period, using credit card on line.
$400 USD per day using INSTADEBIT
Deposit Transfer fees:
Bank Wire: $1000 or more None
Cashiers Check: $1000 or more None
Credit or Debit Card: None
Neteller: None Neteller InstaCASH: 5% of Deposit Amount
INSTADEBIT: None
WebMoney: None
Moneybookers: None
Solo/Switch Debit Card: None
Visa Electron Debit Card: None
Withdrawal Methods & processing time:
Checks via Federal Express; requests sent to the bank the next day and the checks are sent the following day. Clients receive an email with the Federal Express tracking number.
Bank Wires; sent the next day
Neteller; within minutes
INSTADEBIT, within minutes
WebMoney; within minutes
Moneybookers; within minutes
Withdrawal Limit: One check per day of $50,000 USD or equivalent.
WebMoney maximum withdrawal of $25,000 per month
Withdrawal Transfer fees:
Bank Wire: One free payout per month for $1000 (or the equivalent) or more; $25 (or the equivalent) flat fee for additional withdrawals or any withdrawals less than $1000.
Cashiers Check: One free payout per month for $1000 (or the equivalent) or more; $25 (or the equivalent) flat fee for additional withdrawals or any withdrawals less than $1000.
Neteller: One free payout per month for $500 or more; $15 fee for less than $500 or for more than one payout per month.
INSTADEBIT: One free payout per month for $500 or more; $15 fee for less than $500 or for more than one payout per month.
WebMoney: There is one free withdrawal of $500 or more per calendar month. Withdrawals for less than $500, or additional withdrawals in the same calendar month for any amount incur a fee of $15.
Moneybookers: One free payout per month for $500 or more; $15 fee for less than $500 or for more than one payout per month.
Commission or Tax Charges: No tax or commission is charged directly by Pinnacle Sports.
Betting Information:
Ways to place a Bet: Internet & phone. Phone wagers are governed by phone client rules. Minimum play is $100 and there is no reduced pricing.
Minimum Bet: Online USD$1 or equivalent in other currencies
Maximum Bet: Our General Limits are posted here in USD$: Limits. Exact limits are posted in each client’s account.
Maximum Win: Limits on Soccer accumulator wins & maximum horse payouts.
Odds Format: Decimal and American Pricing. The client may choose either display.
Company/ Account Information:
Account currencies:
Australian Dollar
Canadian Dollar
Danish Krone
EURO
Hong Kong Dollar
Japanese Yen
Malaysian Ringgit
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Languages you can view the site in:
English
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Customer Service: 24 hours per day/ 7 days a week. E-mail Only. Responses are generally provided within 15 minutes.
E-mail contact:
http://us.f536.mail.yahoo.com/ym/Compose?To=csd@pinnaclesports.com (Customer Service Department)
http://us.f536.mail.yahoo.com/ym/Compose?To=crd@pinnaclesports.com (New Account Information)
Bonus: 10% Initial Cash Bonus (up to $500) for all Internet accounts that start with $250 or more, in conjunction with the ultra-competitive prices on our Website. For example, Pinnacle Sports is offering the best lines anywhere on Soccer Handicaps, less than a ten point margin the day of the match. Our website www.pinnaclesports.com offers the best prices on most sports; an unbeatable value, 24/7. This represents a better value than any bonus or other signup incentive that can be offered.
Casino: Pinnacle Sports is known for outstanding value on sports and our casino is no different – we offer 0.3% cash back – on every bet, meaning our payout levels are amongst the best in the industry.
Pinnacle Sports' Cash Rebate program settles at the end of every day putting 0.3% of your bets win or lose back into your Pinnacle account. This is an absolute "Unbeatable Value".
Can you choose your password when registering with the site? : Yes
Location Head Office: Pinnacle Sports Worldwide, Second Floor, c/o Holiday Beach Hotel & Casino, Pater Euwensweg # 31, Curaçao, Netherlands Antilles.